Stocks Closed Lower Yesterday, All Eyes On This Afternoon's FOMC Announcement And Fed Chair Press Conference
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Stocks closed lower again yesterday, making it the second down day in a row.
But for context, the market is coming off of their longest winning streak in two decades (S&P 500 was up 9 days in a row through last Friday).
Moreover, all of the major indexes are up double-digits from their April lows to last Friday's close with the Dow having gained 12.9%; the S&P up 17.6%; the Nasdaq up 21.6%; the small-cap Russell 2000 up 16.6%; and the mid-cap S&P 400 up 16.8%.
So there was bound to be some profit taking after such monster gains in such a short period of time.
But I believe the respite were seeing now is likely to be short-lived. Especially after last week's Q1 GDP estimate, which showed the headline number being down (skewed by a rush of imports), but core GDP being up; last Friday's better-than-expected Employment report, which showed robust job growth; and positive corporate earnings estimates projected for each of the next four quarters.
The underlying strength in the economy is undeniable (you can see it in the stats).
And with new trade deals expected to be announced soon (President Trump is expected to announce at least one new deal later this week), that could ignite the next leg up.
In other news, DoorDash reported earnings before the open yesterday and posted a positive EPS surprise of 10%, and a negative sales surprise of -1.96%. That equated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of more than 800% vs. this time last year, and a sales growth of 20.7%. Nevertheless, they were down -7.44% in the regular session following earnings.
Advanced Micro Devices reported earnings after the close and posted a positive EPS surprise of 3.23%, and a positive sales surprise of 4.45%. That translated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 54.8% vs. this quarter last year, and a sales growth of 36.0%. They were down less than -1.00% in after-hours trade.
Today we'll hear from another 425 companies on deck to report, including Novo Nordisk, Uber and Disney before the open, along with ARM Holdings, AppLovin and Carvana after the close.
On the economic report front, we'll get MBA Mortgage Applications and Consumer Credit.
But the main event(s) will be the FOMC Announcement followed by the Fed Chair Press Conference.
The odds overwhelmingly (98.5% according to the CME's FedWatch tool) favor no change in rates at this meeting. But investors will be anxious to hear what their outlook is for the next meetings on June 18 and July 30.
As it stands now, the odds for a June cut are at 32.4%, while July is at 78.5%.
If the Fed's comments appear to support the idea of a June or July cut, that could be viewed favorably by the market.
That comes out at 2:00 PM ET for the announcement, and 2:30 for the press conference.
Could be a busy day.
See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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