Stocks Closed Mixed Yesterday After Weak ADP Jobs Report, All Eyes Will Be On Friday's Employment Report
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Stocks closed narrowly mixed yesterday. The big three indexes bumped up against their intraday highs a few times during the day, but gave up most, if not all of their gains (and then some) near the end of the day.
Yesterday morning's ADP Employment report came in well under expectations at 37,000 new private payroll jobs estimated for May vs. April's downwardly revised 60,000 (from 62,000), and views for 110,000.
That initially sapped all of the pre-market gains out of the futures market. But they regained their footing before the open (even though they gave it back by the close).
Yesterday's weaker-than-expected jobs report was a bit of a surprise. Although, the ADP report has a spotty track record of foreshadowing what the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) Employment Situation Report will say two days later. Case in point is last month ? the BLS report came in better-than-expected with 167K private sector jobs (177K total) vs. last month's ADP report of just 62K. So ADP's numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Nonetheless, they were down -38% vs. last month, and -66% under the consensus.
President Trump, following the weak ADP report, called on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower rates (as he has numerous times before). Although, Mr. Powell is not likely to be swayed as he and the Fed have stated their preference to wait and see how inflation and the economy does given the uncertainty regarding tariffs and policy. It's also interesting to note that yesterday's comments follow President Trump and Mr. Powell's meeting last week in the White House.
(For the record, inflation has eased over the last few reports. And the previous few employment reports have come in better-than-expected.)
Friday's employment report by the BLS is calling for 129,000 new jobs being created in May (123K in the private sector and 6K in public). The unemployment rate is expected to stay steady at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to ease slightly on a y/y basis to 3.7% vs. last month's 3.8% pace.
In the meantime, we'll get Weekly Jobless Claims today, and the Challenger Job-Cut report. We'll also get the International Trade in Goods and Services report, and the Productivity and Costs report.
Additionally, we'll hear from Fed policymakers Adriana Kugler, Patrick Harker and Jeffrey Schmid as they speak at their respective engagements throughout the day.
With two more days to go, all of the major indexes are up for the week. If that holds true by week's end, that would make it 2 up weeks in a row for all of them, and the 3rd up week out of the last 4 weeks.
See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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