Stocks closed mostly lower yesterday while the Nasdaq Composite added another 0.31%.

It's noteworthy that the Nasdaq 100 made new all-time highs yesterday. And so did NVIDIA.

There was no new news on Middle East tensions. But the recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding. And President Trump said he would meet with Iran next week.

In other news, MBA Mortgage Applications were up 1.1% w/w with purchases off -0.4%, and refi's up 3.0%.

New Home Sales slipped to 623,000 (annualized) vs. last month's 722K and views for 694K.

Today we'll get the third and final estimate for Q1'25 GDP. The first estimate was -0.3%. Last month's estimate was -0.2%. The consensus is for the same.

We'll also get the International Trade in Goods report, Weekly Jobless Claims, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Retail and Wholesale Inventories, the Pending Home Sales Index, and Corporate Profits.

Additionally, we'll hear from Fed policymakers Thomas Barkin, Beth Hammack, Michael Barr and Neel Kashkari as they speak at their respective engagements throughout the day.

The market is still waiting on new news of trade deals as the 90-day pause comes closer to ending. Although, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the White House was open to extending the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs to those who have shown "good faith" in ongoing trade negotiations. In the meantime, the Administration is "working toward deals" with our largest trading partners.

The big report everybody will be focused on this week is Friday's (6/27) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index (which is the Fed?s preferred inflation gauge).

We've had several months of inflation reports showing inflation easing, in spite of worries that it would go up due to the increase in tariffs. We'll see if Friday's report underscores what all the others have said once again.

If so, it's possible the Fed might move up their timeline for their next rate cut. Just last week they said they still expect two rate cuts this year. The odds are on September (which is two meetings from now). But if inflation keeps ticking lower, in contrast to the Fed's warnings it'll go up, they might choose to act at their next meeting on July 30^th. The odds are still low at the moment at only 24.8%. But nothing is set in stone. And the Fed has insisted it will remain data dependent.

With July 4^th only a little more than a week away, attention will also be on the President's budget bill, aka, the "Big, Beautiful Bill," as the President has asked Congress to pass it by the holiday.

There could be some volatility if it hits a road block. But that's on the docket for this week and next.

The big three indexes remain within striking distance of their all-time highs. And it won't take much to get them over that hump. And that could start a whole new leg up.

See you tomorrow,