Stocks Up For The Week, New All-Time Highs Again For The S&P And Nasdaq
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Stocks closed higher on Thursday and for the week, making it 2 up weeks in a row for the S&P 500, and 3 up weeks in a row for all of the other indexes.
In the first half of the year (plus a few days more), the Dow is up 5.37% YTD, the S&P 500 is up 6.76%, the Nasdaq is up 6.68%, the small-cap Russell 2000 is up 0.85%, and the mid-cap S&P 400 is up 2.25%. And the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are sitting at all-time record highs.
Friday's Employment Situation Report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) came in with a better-than-expected 147,000 new jobs for June (74,000 in the private sector and 73,000 in the public), vs. the consensus for 110,000 (100K private and 10K public). The unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.1% vs. last month's 4.2% and views for 4.3%. The participation rate, however, edged lower to 62.3% vs. last month's 62.4% and estimates for 62.5%. The average hourly earnings eased to a 0.2% m/m increase vs. last month's 0.4% and expectations for 0.3%. The y/y rate came in at 3.7% vs. last month's 3.9% and forecasts for 3.8%.
Revisions to prior months saw April add an additional 11,000 to its tally to 158,000, while May added an extra 5,000 to 144,000.
Health Care was the biggest private sector job gainer adding 39,000 new jobs, followed by Social Assistance employment, which gained 19,000. Government employment picked up the most, which was largely dominated by education (state education jobs were up 40K while local government education jobs grew by 23,000). Job losses were seen in the federal government which shed -7,000.
All in all, it was a good report. The private payrolls could have been a little better given their 100K expectation. But considering the previous day's ADP Employment report, which forecast private payrolls falling by -33,000, the positive 74K print was cheered, and underscores the resilience of the economy.
That's a sentiment that the Fed voiced just a couple of weeks ago when Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that "despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position, the unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market is at or near maximum employment."
Additionally, the Fed said they still expect to cut interest rates two times this year (presumably by 25 basis points each). With inflation going down over the last several months, defying worries that inflation would go up, they may find themselves in a position to cut sooner rather than later.
There's only 4 more meetings left in the year (July, September, October and December). So half of those remaining meetings should see cuts.
In other news, the White House, last week, announced a new trade deal with Vietnam. That makes 3 done deals (the U.K, China and Vietnam), since the reciprocal tariffs were put on a 90-day pause. The market is expecting to hear deal announcements on India, Japan and South Korea soon.
Even though the 90-day pause will soon be coming to an end, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the President was open to extending the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs to those who have shown "good faith" in ongoing trade negotiations.
Stocks are on a roll.
And with Q2 earnings season right around the corner (stocks typically go up during earnings season), we could see stocks extend their gains even further.
So make sure you're taking full advantage of it.
See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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