The big 3 indexes closed narrowly mixed yesterday with the Dow and the S&P 500 giving up -0.37% and -0.07% respectively, while the Nasdaq ticked up 0.03%. The small-cap Russell 2000 and the mid-cap S&P 400, however, saw solid gains of 0.66% and 0.40%.

President Trump yesterday said he would likely place a 50% tariff on copper coming into the U.S., sending copper prices trading in NY up nearly 17% (the largest intraday advance in more than 35 years) before settling with gains of roughly 9%.

Stiff duties are also coming for the pharmaceutical industry. But the President said those would not go into effect for at least another year, giving companies a chance to move their production to the U.S. and "get their act together."

Yesterday's comments came on the heels of Monday's comments when the Administration said that approximately 100 smaller trading partners would face higher tariff rates come August 1 (if no deal is in place by then), reverting to the rates that were previously announced back on April 2^nd.

While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the U.S. was close to signing several trade deals (India and the E.U. are likely next) before the July 9^th deadline (the end of the 90-day tariff pause), some big trading partners, like Japan, could face sharply higher tariffs as well if no deal is forthcoming in time.

I should note that the President said he was open to extending the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs to those who have shown "good faith" in ongoing trade negotiations.

Nonetheless, the 7/9 deadline is today.

The President also commented on an extra 10% tariff for the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, and also includes Indonesia, Iran, Egypt Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates), saying "any country aligning themselves with the anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an additional 10% tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy."

In other news, yesterday's NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 98.6 from last month's 98.8 and views for 98.7.

Today we'll get MBA Mortgage Applications, Wholesale Inventories, and the FOMC Minutes.

At the last FOMC Announcement, they said they were still forecasting two rate cuts this year (presumably by 25 basis points each). Given there's only 4 meetings left in the year (July, September, October and December), half of those meetings should result in cuts.

But the Fed has sat on rates all year, fearing inflation could head back up due to tariffs. But inflation over the last several months has gone down, defying those concerns.

Acknowledging that, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, just the other week, hinted at the possibility that the Fed could begin cutting rates as early as this month when they meet on July 29-30.

That squared up with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who previously said he believes the Fed could begin lowering rates as early as July's meeting as well.

The likelihood is still for a September cut at the earliest, with the more likely dates being October and December. But if inflation keeps easing, that could give the Fed the opportunity to take action sooner rather than later.

Either way, you can be sure plenty of attention will be on today's FOMC Minutes to see if there is/was a broader shift in sentiment for cutting sooner.

At the moment, stocks are near their best levels of the year, and are poised to breakout even higher with a little bit of good news.

See you tomorrow,