Stocks Closed Mostly Lower Yesterday, PCE Inflation And More Earnings On Deck For Today
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Stocks were up for most of the day, and stayed that way even after the Fed kept rates unchanged. But they turned around during Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference where he said no decision has been made on whether the Fed will cut rates in September (the next meeting).
The selloff following those comments are peculiar since the Fed never commits, one way or another, on what they will do at their next meeting. So none of this should have come as a surprise. A disappointment maybe. But not a surprise. And that's likely why the market bounced off their intraday lows by the close, shaving off much, if not most, of their losses by day's ends.
Which was probably a good move. Especially after earnings by Microsoft and Meta.
Microsoft reported after the close and posted a positive EPS surprise of 8.96%, and a positive sales surprise of 3.70%. That translated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 23.7% vs. this time last year, and a sales growth of 18.1%. They were up 0.13% in the regular session before earnings, and jumped by more than 7% in after-hours trade following earnings.
We also heard from Meta after the bell. They posted a positive EPS surprise of 22.5%, and a positive sales surprise of 5.96%. That equated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 38.4%, and a sales growth of 21.6%. They were off -0.68% before earnings, and soared by more than 9% following earnings.
We'll get more earnings today, along with two more Magnificent 7 constituents: Apple and Amazon.
In other news, yesterday's advance estimate for Q2 GDP came in better-than-expected at 3.0% vs. the consensus for 2.5%. That should end the misguided recession worries after Q1's skewed results which showed -0.50%. That was heavily impacted due to a rush of imports into the U.S. to beat the increase in tariffs. (An increase in imports vs. exports can depress GDP numbers.)
To be fair, Q2 saw the same skewing, but in reverse. The reduction in imports, as inventories were drawn upon, helped increase GDP as the ratio of exports vs. imports flipped. The takeaway, however, was that consumer spending was up 1.4%, and final sales to private domestic purchasers (which excludes trade and government spending, and is a closely watched barometer of business and consumer health) rose by 1.2%.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, "I think we're just going to accelerate in the third, and fourth quarter, and I think we can go back to the '90s, where we had this very strong, non-inflationary growth for a decade...," adding "ya ain't seen nothing yet."
Throughout the day, we got reports on who is getting their tariffs raised come August 1st. Looks like India will get hit with 25% tariffs if no deal is done. But they are still in negotiations. Brazil will be hit with 90%, up from the previous 50%. And South Korea could face a 25% tariff.
In the meantime, today we'll get another look at inflation with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
And tomorrow we'll get the always important Employment Situation report.
Big earnings beats from Microsoft and Meta yesterday should help lift stocks today.
And if we can get the same kind of numbers from Apple and Amazon this afternoon, that should help lift stocks even further.
See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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