Stocks Closed Mostly Lower Yesterday, But Small-Caps Gained
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Stocks closed mostly lower yesterday, but only moderately so. The small-cap Russell 2000, however, finished in the green with a 0.60% gain.
After Friday's sell-off and Monday's recovery, the markets were digesting the latest moves as well as news, not to mention earnings.
Monday evening's better-than-expected earnings by Palantir didn't disappoint yesterday. After posting a positive EPS surprise of 14.3%, and a positive sales surprise of 6.97%, which translated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 77.8% vs. this time last year, and a sales growth of 47.5%, and raising their full-year revenue forecast, they soared by 7.85% yesterday.
After the close yesterday we heard from Advanced Micro Devices, which posted a positive EPS surprise of 2.13%, and a positive sales surprise of 3.74%. That equated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of -30.4%, but a sales growth of 31.7%. They also guided Q3 revenue higher, putting their midpoint at $8.7 billion vs. the consensus for $8.3B. They were off -1.40% before earnings, and were trading lower by another -3% in after-hours trade.
Arista Networks also reported after the close yesterday and posted a positive EPS surprise of 12.3%, and a positive sales surprise of 4.34%, for a quarterly EPS growth rate of 40.4%, and a sales growth of 30.2%. They too guided higher, raising their Q3 forecast 6.13% above the street estimate. They soared in after-hours trade by more than 14%.
Today we'll hear from 548 companies on deck to report, including marquee names McDonald's, Disney and Uber before the open, along with AppLovin and DoorDash after the close.
Still waiting to hear the status of trade talks with Canada. Negotiations have resumed. And Canada appears confident a deal will soon be reached. But as of now, there isn't one. Canada is our third largest trading partner behind the E.U. and Mexico (each have deals or extensions in place). But only goods that fall outside of the USMCA agreement will be subject to higher tariffs. While Canada accounts for roughly 12% of U.S. imports, roughly 86% of their goods fall within the prior USMCA agreement, meanings only 14% of goods will be hit with the reciprocal tariffs while talks continue.
Not counting Canada, the U.S. essentially has agreements with the E.U. (our largest partner), Mexico (second largest partner, and given a 90-day extension), China (fourth largest partner, who has a working agreement and likely getting another extension come 8/12), and Japan (fifth largest partner). We also have deals with the U.K., South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and more. The aforementioned countries (who we have deals with) represent nearly 65% of U.S. imports. Including Canadian goods under USMCA, that increases to 75% of U.S. imports.
There's still uncertainty with India as well. Their reciprocal tariffs are slated at 20-25%. But President Trump has threated "substantially" higher tariffs for India due to their buying and reselling of Russian oil. We'll see how that plays out. But they too are in negotiations with the U.S. on trade and the issue is likely to be addressed in that forum.
In other news, yesterday's PMI Composite Index rose to 55.1 vs. last month's 52.9 and views for 54.6. The Services Index rose as well to 55.7 vs. last month's 52.9 and estimates for 55.2.
Although, the ISM Services Index slipped to 50.1 vs. last month's 50.8 and the consensus for 51.5.
Stocks are solidly in the green so far this week.
A little bit of good news and some better-than-expected earnings could help keep it that way.
See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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