The big three indexes (Dow, S&P and Nasdaq) closed moderately lower yesterday. But the small-cap Russell 2000 closed up 0.21%.

Before the open yesterday we heard from Walmart. They posted a negative EPS surprise of -6.85%, and a positive sales surprise of 1.08%. That translated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 1.49% vs. this time last year, and a sales growth of 4.76%. They also said they expect better sales and earnings for the full year, even while acknowledging that tariffs are starting to show up in higher prices for the consumer and causing some shoppers to pull back. They were off -4.49% yesterday.

Their report was decidedly better than Target's from the day before, when they reported an EPS growth rate of -20.2%, and a sales growth of -0.94%.

After the close, Ross Stores reported earnings and posted a positive EPS surprise of 2.63%, and a negative sales surprise of -0.88%. That equated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of -1.89%, and a sales growth of 4.54%. They were down -0.50% in the regular session before earnings, but were up 2.66% in after-hours trade following earnings.

Today we'll get another 36 companies on deck to report including BJ's Wholesale Club, Bridgeford Foods, and Ubiquiti to name a few.

Next week marks the official end of earnings season when NVIDIA reports on Wednesday, 8/27, after the close. While they posted a negative EPS surprise their last time out, they still reported a 32% quarterly EPS growth rate and a sales growth of 69%. And they rallied 29.8% since then. Prior to that they positively surprised for 9 quarters in a row. Since February of 2023, they're up 795%. All eyes will be on NVIDIA next week. Not just to see their results. But they have become a bellwether for the semiconductor industry and AI.

In other news yesterday, Weekly Jobless Claims were up 11,000 at 235K vs. views for 224K.

The PMI Composite report showed the Composite Index rising to 55.4 vs. last month's 55.1. The Manufacturing Index rose to 53.3 vs. last month's 49.8 and estimates for 49.7, while the Services Index came in at 55.4 vs. last month's 55.7, and the consensus for 53.0.

Existing Home Sales were up at 4.01 million units (annualized) vs. last month's 3.93M and forecasts for 3.90M.

Not much on the docket economic report-wise today.

But all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell this morning when he speaks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in WY.

While the expectation is for the Fed to cut rates next month, the market will be listening for any hint from Mr. Powell that it's the case. Moreover, people will be listening for his outlook on the job market, given last month's lower-than-expected job gains, and inflation, and given the recent higher-than-expected readings.

At the moment, the likelihood of a rate cut at September's meeting stands at 75.0%.


With one more day to go, all of the indexes are on pace to close down for the week. But a good day today could turn that around. And the Dow and the small-cap Russell are not that far away, only needing 0.36% and 0.54% respectively. The S&P and Nasdaq will need a bit more as they are trailing last week by 1.2% and 2.4%. But they've been the leaders this year with YTD gains of 8.31% and 9.27%.

And, as you know, I'm expecting a lot more by years end, from all of them.

Best,