The big 3 indexes (Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq) closed higher yesterday with all of them notching new all-time high closes in the process. The small-cap Russell 2000 and mid-cap S&P 400, however, finished in the red.

Yesterday we got the annual revisions to job growth by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). For context, last year's preliminary revision for the period of April 2023 to March 2024 showed a reduction of -818,000 jobs (which was later adjusted to -598,000). The latest revision for the period of April 2024 to March 2025 was even larger at -911,000 (or roughly -75,917 jobs per month), making it the largest downward revision on record, surpassing the -902,000 reduction for the 12-month period ending March 2009.

The larger-than-expected reduction, on top of the previous large reduction, underscored the concern of a weakening labor market, which clearly has not been as strong all along.

This all but guarantees a rate cut is coming next week when the Fed concludes their 2-day FOMC meeting on 9/17. While the odds are for a 25 basis point cut, there's also talk of possibly 50 bps. That would mirror what the Fed did last September when they began their rate-cutting cycle. They started with a 50 bps cut, and followed it up with two more 25 bps cuts.

The Fed had forecast 2 rate cuts this year (presumable by 25 bps each). But with last week's softer-than-expected employment report, and the sharp downward revision to last year's job gains, there's plenty of justification for more.

But, the Fed has a dual mandate: price stability (low inflation) and maximizing employment.

And the Fed will get their last look at inflation this week (before their next meeting) with today's (Wednesday, 9/10) Producer Price Index (PPI ? wholesale inflation), and Thursday's (9/11) Consumer Price Index (CPI ? retail inflation).

Short of a sharply higher-than-expected reading, it's unlikely to make much difference on a rate cut next week, given the Fed's shifting focus on jobs vs. inflation. But it could influence what happens after next week.

Later in the day yesterday, the Supreme Court said it would hear the Administration's appeal on tariffs. Last month, the U.S. Court of Appeals ruled the President exceeded his authority when he invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, but stopped short of an injunction that would've ended the tariffs, instead sending the matter back to the lower court to determine what type of relief is appropriate. It also left the door open for the White House to appeal to the Supreme Court, which they did, and the court agreed to hear.

The President is asking for an expedited timeline. They are expected to hear the case in November. Ordinarily, a ruling wouldn't be made until February-June of next year. But if they do expedite their ruling, it could come by the end of the year.

In other news, Apple gave their presentation for their new product lineup, which includes the new iPhone 17 (and the brand new iPhone Air, which is being positioned between the standard version and the Pro version). Pre-orders begin on 9/12, and will officially be available on 9/19. Apple was off -1.48% in yesterday's trade. They are down -6.42% YTD.

In addition to today's PPI report, we'll also get MBA Mortgage Applications, Wholesale Inventories, and the EIA Petroleum Status report.

See you tomorrow,