Stocks Closed Lower Yesterday, Gold Hits New All-Time High, FOMC Minutes Due This Afternoon
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Stocks closed lower yesterday, ending a 7-day winning streak for both the S&P and small-cap Russell 2000.
But gold prices continued to climb, hitting another new all-time high, and closing at 4,004.80 for the Dec-25 contract.
Gold is having another banner year, just like stocks. Maybe even better with a YTD gain of more than 52%.
It has long been considered a safe haven during times of geopolitical uncertainty as well as economic uncertainty. Gold is also used as a hedge against inflation. And it's getting a boost as the dollar falls, given its inverse correlation. Additionally, gold typically does well when interest rates are falling.
Strong demand from central banks have also been underpinning gold.
Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas writes, "our rationale is that emerging market central banks remain significantly underweight gold compared to their developed market counterparts and are gradually increasing allocations as part of a broader diversification strategy." She goes on to say, "our base case assumes that the current trend in official sector accumulation continues for another three years."
A survey from the World Gold Council back in July showed that 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months.
In other news, Tesla fulfilled their promise regarding an announcement yesterday. Those speculating it would be about their lower-priced Model Y were right. The Model Y compact SUV, and Model 3 sedan will start at just under $40K and $37K respectively. These versions are about $5,000 cheaper than their previous base models. A timely addition to their lineup given the expiration of the $7,500 EV tax credit last month. Tesla shares were up 5.45% on Monday ahead of the announcement. But were down -4.45% yesterday following the announcement. YTD, Tesla is up 7.24%.
On the economic report front today, we'll get MBA Mortgage Applications.
We'll also hear from Fed policymakers Alberto Musalem, Michael Barr, Neel Kashkari, and Austan Goolsbee as they speak at their respective engagements throughout the day.
But the main event will be the FOMC Minutes from September's Fed meeting, when they finally cut rates after a 1-year pause. They also forecast 2 more rate cuts by year's end (presumably by 25 basis points each), and raised their economic growth forecast for both this year and next year. We'll get a closer look at what else may have been said and what other insights might be gleaned from it.
The government shutdown enters its 8th day today. So far, the market has met it with a collective shrug. But it's not surprising since past shutdowns have typically not had much of an effect on the market. In fact, since 1980, there have been 10 shutdowns. And the average gain for the S&P during those shutdowns has been 1.69%, with a full 9 of those 10 times being higher.
We'll see how long this one lasts.
But with earnings season unofficially starting next week, the market will focus its sights on that. And that's great news given that stocks typically go up during earnings season.
In the meantime, we'll see if the market can brush off yesterday's lower close and begin their next winning streak.
See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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