Stocks closed higher yesterday with all of the major indexes in the green, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the small-cap Russell 2000 with 1.12% and 1.04% respectively. The S&P, Nasdaq and Russell also made new all-time highs in the process.

Yesterday's FOMC Minutes from September's Fed meeting showed that the majority favored 2 more rate cuts by year's end. It was a slim majority with 10 favoring 2 or more cuts, while 9 favored less. (Of the 9, as many as 7 suggested no further cuts.)

But virtually all expressed concern over the labor market. And that seemed to be the deciding factor for the unanimous agreement to cut rates in September. (Of the 12 voting members, 11 voted for 25 basis points, with 1 voting for 50 bps. But all wanted a cut.)

While inflation is always a concern for the Fed (maximum employment and price stability are part of their dual mandate), the labor market seems to be the biggest concern. And while we missed last week's Employment Situation Report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), due to the government shutdown, private estimates appear to point to a softening jobs market. So that could sway some fence-sitters to increase the majority opinion for more cuts the next time they meet on October 28-29.

The market liked what it heard as stocks firmed up even more after the release of the minutes, with it looking like 2 more cuts are in the bag, at least for now.

In other news, the World Trade Organization on Tuesday upgraded their forecast for global trade growth this year. They had originally predicted 0.9% after President Trump's tariffs. But actual data showed trade coming in sharply higher than they had originally thought, and thus increased their estimate to 2.4% for 2025. They did say they expected trade to slow next year, and reduced their estimate from 1.8% to just 0.5%. But, I don't think the market is putting too much weight on that given their previous forecast was so wildly off the mark.

Yesterday's MBA Mortgage Applications were down -4.7% w/w, with purchases off -1.2%, and refi's down -7.7%.

Today we'll get Weekly Jobless Claims, and Wholesale Inventories.

We'll also hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell this morning as he gives opening remarks at the Community Bank Conference in Washington, D.C. No new ground is expected to be covered in his speech. But plenty of people hang of his every word, so it's worth noting.

For those keeping track, Gold made another new all-time high yesterday. Tuesday was the first time it had ever closed above $4,000 (settling at $4,004.80). Yesterday, it added to its record advance picking up another 1.44% at $4,062.00 for the Dec-25 contract.

With 2 more days to go in the week, all of the indexes are solidly in the green. If they can finish that way, that'll make it 2 up weeks in a row for the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell. (It'll also mark the 9th week out of 10 that the Russell has closed higher.)

See you tomorrow,