Stocks closed moderately lower yesterday in uneven trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 was down -0.61%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq was only down -0.08%. The S&P was off by -0.28%. All of the indexes remain within striking distance of their all-time highs, some of which were made just the day before.

Not much in the way of economic reports out yesterday. Weekly Jobless Claims were delayed due to the shutdown. Same with the Wholesale Inventories report.

Today we'll get the Consumer Sentiment report. But that will be released as it's produced by the University of Michigan, which is not a governmental agency.

We'll also hear from Fed policymakers Austan Goolsbee and Alberto Musalem.

Earnings season doesn't officially begin for another two weeks. But it unofficially will begin next week when big banks begin reporting.

Earnings season is always an exciting time since stocks typically go up during earnings season.

Q3 earnings season is expected to be up 5.5%. The forecasts get even better in subsequent quarters with Q4 expected to be up 7.3%; Q1'26 expected to be up 9.7%; and Q2'26 expected to be up 11.0%.

The government shutdown is on day 10. That is now one day past the average shutdown count of 9 days, when looking at the last 10 shutdowns since 1980. The longest one lasted for 35 days in 2018/2019. But historically, the market has not really been affected. The average gain for the S&P during those 10 shutdowns was 1.69%. And a full 9 of those 10 times resulted in a gain. Only 1 shutdown (1990, 3 days long), saw the market lower. But recession fears had gripped the market prior to that, and stocks had been falling for months before.

We'll see how long this one lasts. For now, the market appears unbothered by it.

Was a slow day yesterday. Market-wise and news-wise.

While not necessarily market related, the IRS announced new Federal income tax brackets for 2026. They were raised to adjust for inflation. The standard deductions will also go up: Single filers will see it go from $15,750 to $16,100. Married Filing Jointly goes from $31,500 to $32,200. And Head of Household goes from $23,625 to $24,150.

Long-term capital gains brackets were also adjusted for inflation. Rates stayed the same (0%, 15% and 20% depending on income and filing status). But the income thresholds were raised by roughly 2.3%-2.5%. (Short-term capital gains are taxed as ordinary income.)

We're still a week away from the mid-month mark. But on October 28-29, the Fed will meet again, and they are widely expected to cut rates by another 25 basis points. After last month's meeting, the Fed had forecast two more rate cuts by year's end (presumably by 25 basis points each).

While we are not getting official jobs reports or inflation reports by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), there is enough data coming out from non-governmental organizations to show that the labor market has softened, and that inflation has moderated.

The market is doing well. Corporate earnings are forecast to steadily rise. And per the latest GDP report showing Q2 at 3.8%, and estimates for Q4 to come in at 3.8% (according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast), the economy appears to also be doing well.

With one more day to go, the S&P and Nasdaq are on pace to close higher for the week. If so, that'll make it 2 up weeks in a row for both.

Best,