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Stocks closed mostly higher yesterday. Only laggard was the Dow, which gave up -0.04%.
Kevin Matras   
Profit from the Pros
By Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President
Zacks Investment Research
  

Stocks Closed Mostly Higher Yesterday, Small-Caps Made Another New All-Time High

Stocks closed mostly higher yesterday. Only laggard was the Dow, which gave up -0.04%. But everything else was higher. And no surprise, the small-cap Russell 2000 led the way with a 0.97% gain.

Big bank earnings continue to impress. Before the open yesterday, Bank of America reported a positive EPS surprise of 12.8%, and a positive sales surprise of 2.96%. That translated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 30.9% vs. this time last year, and a sales growth of 10.8%. They were up 4.37% yesterday.

Morgan Stanley also reported before the open and posted a positive EPS surprise of 34.6%, and a positive sales surprise of 10.8%. That equated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 48.9%, and a sales growth of 18.5%. They were up 4.71% yesterday.

More banks are on tap for today with U.S. Bancorp, KeyCorp, Charles Schwab, and the Bank of New York Mellon to name a few. In addition, we'll hear from railroad company CSX, chip company Taiwan Semiconductor, and medical instruments company Intuitive Surgical. All in all, 50 companies are in queue to report today.

In other news, MBA Mortgage Applications were lower by -1.8% w/w, with purchases down -2.7%, and refi's off -1.0%.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index improved to 10.7 vs. last month's -8.7 and views for -0.9.

And the Beige Book report, as a whole, showed little change with 3 districts reporting slight to modest growth, 4 districts reporting slight softening, and 5 showing no change. The report noted that retail sales edged lower, but auto demand rose, driven by EV sales, as purchasers raced to buy before the tax incentives expired at the end of September. The report also cited inflation edging up due to tariffs, but businesses are faced with the decision of passing them onto consumers or absorbing them. And it showed that the labor market was stable, while wage growth moderated.

Today we were supposed to get Weekly Jobless Claims, but due to the government shutdown, we will not.

However, the Producer Price Index (PPI -- wholesale inflation) will be coming out as planned, despite the shutdown. Apparently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is funded thru Dec. '25, and they are planning on publishing it on time today. That should come out at 8:30 AM ET.

We also expect to get the Retail Sales report, Business Inventories, the Housing Market Index, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

The government shutdown is now on day 16, tied for the third longest shutdown since 1980. It if goes at least one more day (and it looks like it will), it'll move into the third position, eclipsing the 16-day shutdown back in 2013. The second longest shutdown was 21 days back in 1995/1996. And the longest shutdown was 35 days back in 2018/2019.

Fortunately, shutdowns have historically had little impact on the market. But we'll have to see how long this one lasts. For now, however, the market has been unbothered by it.

In the meantime, in spite of the recent volatility (October is notoriously the most volatile month for stocks, although they generally end higher), the major indexes are within striking distance of their all-time highs. And the small-cap Russell 2000 has already erased Friday's drop and made 2 new all-time highs since then, with the most recent one being just yesterday.

See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras

Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research

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