Stocks closed higher on Friday, led by the Nasdaq with 0.61%. The big 3 indexes all closed higher for the week as well, making it 3 up weeks in a row. And all of the major indexes closed higher for the month, making it 6 months in row for the Dow, S&P, and small-cap Russell 2000, and 7 months in a row for the Nasdaq.

October kept true to its reputation as being known for its volatility, but still usually ending higher. And that's exactly what we saw last month.

With 2 more months left in the year, it's worth noting that Q4 is typically the best quarter for stocks. Moreover, since 1950, in post-election years (first year after a Presidential election), both November and December have a high probability of finishing up with a 72.2% likelihood and 77.8% likelihood, respectively.

And, of course, I will once again cite the stat I've been citing all year, which is: the last time we saw back-to-back gains of 20% or more in the S&P (1995 and 1996), it was followed by 3 more years of 20% gains. In '95 the market was up 34.1%. In '96 it was up 20.3%. In '97 it was up 31.0%. In '98 it was up 26.7%. And in '99 was up 19.5%. That was 5 long, glorious years of gains (a 220% increase), led by the internet and dot-com boom.

I see the same thing happening this time. In 2023, the S&P was up 24.2%. In 2024 it was up 23.3%. So far in 2025, the S&P is up 16.3% (on its way to another 20%+ gain?). And we can thank the modern-day tech boom, driven by AI, for that. The unprecedented spending and innovation is expected to last for years to come. And I'm expecting another 3 years of 20% plus gains before all is said and done, if not more.

So make sure you're taking full advantage of it.

Last week's agreement by the U.S. and China, where they essentially agreed to a host of things, which will ratchet down trade tensions between the two countries, lifted stocks.

So did last week's expected rate cut, and expectations for one more in December.

Better-than-expected earnings have also been supportive for stocks.

After hearing from 1,145 companies report earnings last week, this week looks to be even busier with as many as 1,806 companies on deck to report, including Palantir today; Advanced Micro Devices and Uber tomorrow; ARM Holdings and AppLovin on Wednesday; ConocoPhillips on Thursday; and Constellation Energy on Friday.

Today, the government shutdown enters day 34. One more day and it'll tie for the longest shutdown of 35 days set back in 2018/2019. Two more days and it'll set a new record.

Since 1980, there have been 10 government shutdowns. Prior to this one, the average length of those shutdowns was 9 days. Although, they have usually lasted 2-3 days.

Fortunately, the markets have usually ended higher during shutdowns. And that's what we've seen so far with this one. But we are entering uncharted territory. Hopefully, after this shutdown likely becomes the longest in history, and with the 2025 elections coming to a close, both parties can find an offramp to open the government back up.

Meantime, stocks are trading near their all-time highs with plenty of seasonal stats and economic stats favoring more gains to come.

See you tomorrow,