Stocks Ended Mostly Higher Yesterday, Dow Makes New All-Time High Close
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Stocks closed mostly higher yesterday in uneven trade. The Dow led the gainers with 1.18%, while the Nasdaq finished lower by -0.25%.
Some headlines read that investors were rotating out of technology stocks. While I agree that we saw some of that, I would draw the distinction between pulling profits and deploying that money in other industries and stocks vs. getting out and not looking back.
The AI trade is alive and well. And will likely be one of the key drivers for stocks for years to come. Just like the tech boom, driven by dot-com companies in the late 90's, I see the same thing happening with AI.
The latest comment underscoring the AI trade comes from AMD CEO Lisa Su, who characterized the demand for AI as "insatiable." She was talking about her company's revenue growth potential and said it could grow by 35% a year for the next 3-5 years because of that.
Yes, AI stocks have moved a lot. Some are at high valuations. But we are still relatively early in the transformational AI revolution, which is likely to impact virtually every area of business, and ordinary lives.
Anyway, since I mentioned rotation, I would like to point out an area that is killing it lately, and that's biotech. After underperforming for the last several years, they have surged this year (particularly over the last 8 months). YTD, the market-weighted, large-cap concentrated, iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF, IBB, is up 24.2%, while the equal-weighted, small and mid-cap focused, SPDR S&P Biotechnology ETF, XBI, is up 26.6%.
In other news, earnings season continues. So far, it's been another better-than-expected earnings season, with Q3 S&P earnings growth pacing at 13.8%. Even though earnings season is winding down, there's still plenty of big-name companies left to report, not the least of which is NVIDIA, which reports next week on Wednesday, 11/19, after the close.
Hewlett-Packard (now HP Inc.) has long been considered the 'official' end to earnings season, as they were, at one time, the last Dow component to report earnings. Ironically, even though they are no longer part of the Dow Jones Index, it just stuck. Although, with NVIDIA reporting right around the same time, and given NVIDIA's modern-day importance to today's economy, I think it's fair to cite them as the new end to earnings season. (Because how can you leave out NVIDIA?)
In the meantime, there's another 377 companies on deck to report today.
The government shutdown looks like it could officially end as early as tonight. On Monday, the Senate voted on and passed the amended continuing resolution. It was sent to the House where they are expected to vote on it as early as today. If all goes well and it passes, it then lands on the President's desk where it'll be signed into law.
Air travel, however, which suffered some of the most high-profile consequences of the shutdown with widespread cancellations, will take some time to get back to normal. It's estimated it could take 3-5 days or so to iron things out. So, the sooner the shutdown officially ends, the better.
The week is getting better and better as it moves forward, as all of the major indexes are in the green.
We'll see if the market can add to their gains again today.
See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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