Stocks closed sharply lower yesterday with all of the major indexes in the red. The small-cap Russell 2000 took the brunt of it, shedding -1.96%. The Dow gave up -1.18%, the S&P was down -0.92%, and the Nasdaq was down -0.84%.

Q3 earnings season 'officially' comes to an end this week with NVIDIA reporting on Wednesday, 11/19, after the close.

They are seen as an AI bellwether. So all eyes will be focused of them. CEO Jensen Huang sounds as enthusiastic as ever on the prospects for AI chip and datacenter demand.

Their earnings come amidst worries that AI is in a bubble, or soon could be.

Before we hear from NVIDIA on Wednesday, however, we'll hear from retail giant Home Depot, and medical device maker Medtronic today (Tuesday).

In addition to NVIDIA on Wednesday, we'll also hear from retailers The TJX Companies, Target, and cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks.

In other news yesterday, it was reported that Berkshire Hathaway has built a position in Alphabet. A rather sizeable one at that, ranking as Warren Buffett's firm's 10th largest holding.

It was notable not only for its size ($4.3 billion), but also because it was a tech play. They typically aren't big players in tech, choosing to focus more heavily on value stocks and consumer goods. Nonetheless, the Alphabet position joins another tech holding, which is Apple. Although, Apple still remains their largest tech holding, and is roughly 14 times the size of their Alphabet position.

It's widely believed that the position was initiated by Berkshire's investment managers Todd Combs and/or Ted Weschler, Warren Buffett's chosen successors when it comes to the firm's investments. Mr. Buffett still oversees the portfolio. But the move could signal a shift in what types of investments Berkshire could be eyeing in the future.

Not much in the way of economic reports yesterday. The Empire State Manufacturing Index improved to 18.7 vs. last month's 10.7 and views for 5.8.

And Construction Spending was up 0.2% m/m vs. last month's 0.2% pace and estimates for -0.1%. Although, on a y/y basis it was off -1.6%.

Today we're expected to get Industrial Production and Factory Orders (although the aforementioned could still be delayed given that the government shutdown just ended last week). Additionally, we should also get the Import and Export Prices report, the Housing Market Index, and the E-Commerce Retail Sales report.

The week is off to a rough start.

And halfway through, the month hasn't been that great either.

But I'm reminded that Q4 is typically the best quarter for stocks.

And given it's a post-election year, there's a 72.2% likelihood that the S&P will end higher for the month. (Since 1950, in post-election years, both November and December have a high probability of finishing in the plus column with a 72.2% likelihood for November and a 77.8% likelihood for December.)

So I'm expecting a strong finish to the month, and the year.

See you tomorrow,