The big three indexes closed moderately higher yesterday, led by the Nasdaq with 0.59%. The small-cap Russell 2000, however, finished lower, albeit by only -0.12%.

Bitcoin, after taking a drubbing recently, which wiped out 2025's gains, bounced back some with a 7% increase. Bitcoin is down around -5% YTD.

That's in sharp contrast to equities with the Dow up 11.6% YTD; the S&P up 16.1%; the Nasdaq up 21.3%; and the Russell up 10.5%.

Not much in the way of economic reports out yesterday.

Today we'll get MBA Mortgage Applications, the ADP Employment Report, Import and Export Prices, Industrial Production, the PMI Composite report, and the ISM Services Index.

Typically, we'll get the Employment Situation report the first Friday of the month. But that will be delayed by nearly two weeks until Tuesday, 12/16. That means it won't come out until after next Wednesday's FOMC Announcement on 12/10.

The last report we got was in late November, but that was just the delayed September jobs report. While it came in better than expected at 119,000, the downward revisions to August turned a previously reported 22,000 job increase into a -4,000 job decrease.

And for perspective, that 119K in September is under the monthly average for 2024's 165K.

The economy is doing fine, but a slowing labor market has become a key focal point for the Fed. Fed Chair Jerome Powell in October acknowledged that "job gains have slowed." And he cited the rate cut back then as "cushioning a softening labor market."

And while inflation is still an important factor, the Fed sees that the risk to the labor market has increased vs. inflation. And that bodes well for another rate cut next week.

We're also expecting to hear confirmation that the Fed has indeed concluded their balance sheet reduction (Quantitative Tightening or QT) on December 1^st as they indicated they would at their last FOMC meeting.

With odds for a rate cut at 89.2%, there's not that much suspense going into next week's announcement. But nothing is done until it's done.

The real suspense, however, probably lies in what the Fed's forecast is for further rate cuts next year. That's the unknown.

In the meantime, there's still 4+ weeks left in the year. And gladly, the odds favor a strong end of year finish.

See you tomorrow,