Stocks closed mostly lower yesterday with only the Nasdaq and small-cap Russell 2000 eking out modest gains.

Yesterday's NFIB Small Business Optimism Index ticked up to 99.0 from last month's 98.2 and views for 98.0.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report (or JOLTS for short) showed 7.670 million job openings in October vs. the prior month's 7.658M and estimates for 7.200M.

And the Leading Indicators report came in at -0.3% m/m vs. the previous month's -0.3% and forecasts for the same. The Conference Board also noted that it was the second monthly decline in a row, and that the Leading Economic Index (LEI) was down -2.1% for the six months between March and September vs. last year's decline of -1.3% for the same period last year.

Today we'll get MBA Mortgage Applications, the Employment Cost Index, and Wholesale Inventories.

But the main event will be this afternoon's FOMC Announcement and Fed Chair Press Conference.

The Fed is widely expected to cut rates today for the third time this year, as they had previously predicted. The CME's FedWatch tool puts the odds at 87.6% for a 25 basis point cut.

But October's FOMC Minutes did show disagreement over what to do at December's meeting.

Although, a few benign inflation reports since then, and a weakening labor market support the narrative for another cut.

Assuming we do indeed get the expected 25 bps cut, it's what the Fed says afterwards, especially Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and what the outlook is for next year's rate cut schedule.

We are also expected to get the Fed's SEP (Summary of Economic Projections). These are released 4 times a year. And the December meeting is one of those times.

The Fed is expected to provide outlooks for GDP, the unemployment rate, PCE inflation, and the Fed Funds rate (dot plot). The forecasts are expected to cover this year (2025), next year (2026), the year after (2027), and the "longer run" structural estimate.

While today's rate cut may not hold much of a surprise, the SEP release, and the following press conference just might.

The Announcement comes out a 2:00 PM ET, with the Press Conference at 2:30.

Including today, there's 15 more trading days left in the year. And one of those days (Christmas Eve) is a half-day. So, technically, only 14½ more trading days left in the year.

YTD, the Dow is up 11.8%; the S&P is up 16.3%; the Nasdaq is up 22.1%; and the Russell 2000 is up 13.3%.

I'm still expecting the S&P to close up by 20% or more for the third year in a row.

In 2023 it was up 24.2%, and in 2024 it was up 23.3%. With it being up 16.3% YTD, we only need another 3.70% to hit that mark.

As you know, I'm expecting the current AI tech-boom to mirror the dot-com tech-boom in 1995-1999. Back then we saw 5 years in a row of 20%+ gains.

With two 20%+ years already in the bag, I'm expecting this year to be number 3. And then 2026 and 2027 to be numbers 4 and 5. But there's no saying we have to stop there.

But first things first ? and that's hopefully finishing this year on a strong note.

We'll see if the Fed can help that along today.

See you tomorrow,