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Stocks closed mostly lower yesterday. The Dow was the biggest loser, shedding -0.80%, while the S&P and Nasdaq only gave up -0.19% and -0.10% respectively.
Kevin Matras   
Profit from the Pros
By Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President
Zacks Investment Research
  

Stocks Closed Mostly Lower Yesterday, Cooler CPI Eases Inflation Concerns

Stocks closed mostly lower yesterday. The Dow was the biggest loser, shedding -0.80%, while the S&P and Nasdaq only gave up -0.19% and -0.10% respectively. But the mid-cap S&P 400 picked up another 0.19%.

Yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) retail inflation report showed headline inflation for December up 0.3% m/m vs. last month's upwardly revised 0.3% and views for the same. On a y/y basis it was up 2.7%, in line with last month, but a bit above the consensus. The core rate (ex-food & energy) was up 0.2% m/m, in line with expectations and a bit below the consensus, while the y/y rate came in at 2.6%, in line with last month, and also a bit below the consensus for 2.7%.

The numbers, while showing inflation still remains too high, have essentially stabilized. And when compared to last year, it has slowly come down. Last year, it was as high as 3.3%.

That's great news for interest rates, as the key driver now only seems to be the labor market, which has shown more risk than inflation.

We'll get another look at inflation today with the Producer Price Index (PPI) wholesale inflation report. But that will reflect on November's inflation. We won't get a look at December's PPI until 1/30, which is 2 days after the Fed's FOMC Announcement of 1/28.

At the moment, the odds favor a March cut vs. January.

Yesterday's NFIB Small Business Optimism Index ticked up to 99.5 vs. last month's 99.0 and estimates for 99.4.

And New Home Sales (for October) came in at 737,000 units (annualized) vs. last month's 738K and forecast for 714K.

Today, in addition to the PPI report, we'll also get MBA Mortgage Applications, Retail Sales, Existing Home Sales, Business Inventories, the EIA Petroleum Status report, and the Beige Book report.

Before the open yesterday, JPMorgan Chase reported earnings and posted a 7.39% positive EPS surprise, and a 0.23% positive sales surprise. That translated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 8.73% vs. this time last year, and a sales growth of 7.10%.

We also heard from The Bank of New York Mellon before the open, and they posted a 5.58% positive EPS surprise, and a 1.21% positive sales surprise. That equated to a quarterly EPS growth rate of 20.9%, and a sales growth of 6.90%.

Today we'll hear from Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo.

In other news, today is another 'opinion day' at the Supreme Court, which is when they begin to release written decisions on argued cases. The expectation is the Supreme Court will soon rule on President Trump's authority to implement tariffs under the IEEPA (or International Emergency Economic Powers Act). Last Friday, 1/9, was the first day an opinion could have been released. Today is the next day when a potential ruling could be made. But they have not said whether they will have a decision today or not.

Whenever it happens, it could have an impact on the market. Will a favorable ruling for the Administration be cheered, as it will allow the President to continue to pursue his economic agenda without detour? Or could a negative ruling against the White House weigh on the market, as it will inject new uncertainty into the economy and the market? Or something else?

In the meantime, stocks are off to a great start to the year, yesterday notwithstanding.

And I'm expecting another banner year again in 2026 ? another year of double-digit gains, making it 4 years in a row.

See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras

Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research

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