Stocks Up Last Week, Earnings Season Officially Begins This Week
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Stocks closed mostly lower on Friday, although the Nasdaq finished with a 0.35% gain. But all of the major indexes closed up for the week. That makes 2 up weeks in a row for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. And 3 up weeks in a row for the small-cap Russell 2000 and mid-cap S&P 400.
As of Friday, the "fragile" 2-week ceasefire continued to hold. Even though both sides accuse the other of breaking it. And traffic thru the Strait of Hormuz was still at a trickle.
Nonetheless, there was, and still is, hope it can lead to a longer lasting peace. And shipping can return closer to normal.
But that may have to wait a while.
Over the weekend, peace discussions continued. And after 21 hours, the talks ended with no deal.
Afterwards, President Trump said the U.S. would impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. He said that would begin shortly. But no specific timeline was given. Additionally, the U.S. said it would begin clearing the mines in the Strait as well.
The state of the ceasefire remains uncertain. But so far, it has not been declared over. So until then, it continues until it doesn't.
In other news, Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI -- retail inflation) showed March headline inflation rising 0.9% m/m, up from last month's 0.3%, but in line with expectations. The y/y rate came in at 3.3%, up from last month's 2.4%, but slightly better than estimates for 3.4%. The core rate (ex-food & energy), was up 0.2% m/m, the same as last month's pace, and just under views for 0.3%. The y/y rate ticked up to 2.6% from last month's 2.5%, but under the consensus for 2.7%.
This was the first inflation report that captured the rise in energy prices as a result of the Middle East conflict. While headline and core rates were higher, they both came in slightly better than expected. And the market appeared to breathe a sigh of relief.
More March inflation numbers will be rolling in soon. But if oil can continue to back off their peak conflict highs, then the inflation numbers, in part attributed to oil, could be viewed as old news by then.
Friday's Factory Orders report was flat (0.0%) m/m, in line with last month, but under views for 0.4%.
And Consumer Sentiment fell with the index coming in at 47.6 vs. last month's 53.3 and estimates for 52.0. The year-ahead inflation expectations (also part of that report), rose to 4.8% vs. last month's 3.8% pace.
The biggest economic report this week comes on Tuesday with the Producer Price Index (PPI ? wholesale inflation) report.
Aside from that, the main event this week will be the official start of earnings season when Alcoa reports on Wednesday, 4/16 after the close. But we'll be getting marquee names reporting all week with Goldman Sachs reporting today; JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock and Johnson & Johnson reporting tomorrow; Bank of America and Morgan Stanley going on Wednesday; Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix and Abbott Labs on Thursday; and State Street and Regions Financial posting on Friday.
Earnings season is always an exciting time since stocks typically go up during earnings season.
Lots of potentially market moving news on tap this week.
Momentum has shifted back to the upside. And we'll see if stocks can build on recent gains this week.
See you tomorrow,

Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research
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