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Is a Beat in Store for JetBlue (JBLU) This Earnings Season?

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JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2020 results on Jul 28, before market open.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter bottom line has been narrowed from a loss of $1.97 per share to a loss of $1.86 per share in the past 60 days. Moreover, it has an impressive earnings history. The company’s earnings have outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters (missed the same in one). JetBlue has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 4%, on average.

Let’s discuss the factors that are likely to have influenced the carrier’s second-quarter performance. 

Low air travel demand due to the coronavirus pandemic is likely to have dented JetBlue’s second-quarter performance and hurt passenger revenues. To tackle low demand, the company resorted to capacity cuts.  This measure was undertaken due to rise in government travel restrictions amid coronavirus concerns. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for capacity (measured in available seat miles) and traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) reflects a 78.5% and 92.3% decline on a sequential basis, respectively. Since expected decline in traffic outweighs expected capacity contraction, load factor (% of seats filled by passengers) is likely to have declined in the to-be-reported quarter. Notably, Zacks Consensus Estimate for load factor in the June quarter is currently pegged at 25% compared with 70% reported in the first quarter of 2020.

The consensus estimate for passenger revenue per available seat mile suggests a decline 58.6% from March-end reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for passenger revenues indicates a 3.2% decline sequentially.

Operating expenses are expected to have escalated during the to-be-reported quarter thanks to COVID-19 induced low passenger revenues along with high costs on wages and benefits.

With coronavirus affecting demand significantly, low fuel prices are expected to have partly offset the adversities and contributed to the bottom line in the second quarter. The consensus mark for average fuel cost per gallon indicates 43% decline from its March-end reported figure.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model predicts a bottom line outperformance for JetBlue this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of a positive surprise as elaborated below. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Earnings ESP: JetBlue has an Earnings ESP of +13.17%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: JetBlue carries a Zacks Rank #3, currently.

Highlights of Q1

JetBlue incurred a loss (excluding 55 cents from non-recurring items) of 42 cents per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 41 cents. Results were hurt by the coronavirus-induced weakness in air-travel demand. Moreover, operating revenues of $1,588 million declined 15.1% year over year and also lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,690 million.

Other Stocks to Consider

Investors interested in the broader Transportation sector may also check out other stocks worth considering like Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK - Free Report) , Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV - Free Report) and Air Lease Corporation (AL - Free Report) as these also possess the perfect combination to beat on estimates.

Alaska Air has an Earnings ESP of +16.33% and a Zacks Rank #3. This company is set to release second-quarter financial numbers on Jul 23.

Southwest Airlines presently has an Earnings ESP of +14.34% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked player. The company will release second-quarter 2020 results on Jul 23.

Air Lease has an Earnings ESP of +23.32% and is Zacks #3 Ranked at present. The company will release second-quarter 2020 results on Aug 6.

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