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Why Is ICF (ICFI) Down 5.6% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for ICF International (ICFI - Free Report) . Shares have lost about 5.6% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is ICF due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

ICF International Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenues Estimates

ICF Internationalreported impressive second-quarter 2020 numbers, with both earnings and revenues beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

Non-GAAP EPS of 89 cents surpassed the consensus mark by 29% but declined 8.2% on a year-over-year basis. Revenues of $354 million beat the consensus mark by 2.1% but decreased 3.5% year over year mainly due to lower pass-through revenues.

Revenues in Detail

Revenues from government clients came in at $246.8 million, flat year over year. The U.S. federal government revenues of $170.7 million increased 20.8% year over year and contributed 48% to total revenues. The U.S. state and local government revenues of $58 million decreased 20.7% year over year and contributed 17% of total revenues. International government revenues of $23.1 million were down 42.7% year over year, contributing 5% of total revenues.

Commercial revenues totaled $107.2 million, down 11.2% from the year-ago quarter’s figure and contributed 33% of total revenues. Energy markets and marketing services contributed 54% and 35%, respectively, to commercial revenues.

Backlog and Value of Contracts

Total backlog and funded backlog amounted to $2.4 billion and $1.3 billion at the end of the second quarter, respectively. The total value of contracts awarded in the quarter came in at $282million.

Operational Results

Adjusted EBITDA of $32.5 million declined marginally from the year-ago quarter’s figure. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 9.2% increased 30 basis points (bps) year over year. Adjusted EBITDA margin on service revenues was 12.4%, down 60 bps year over year.

Balance Sheet

ICF exited the quarter with cash and cash equivalent balance of $9.1 million compared with the $58.7 million recorded at the end of the previous quarter. The company had a long-term debt of $441 million compared with $507 million witnessed at the end of the prior quarter.

The company used $26 million of cash from operating activities, and capex was $4.3 million. ICF paid out dividends of $2.6 million in the reported quarter.

2020 Guidance

Management reiterated its guidance for 2020. Revenue expectation continues to be $1.45-$1.51 billion. Non-GAAP EPS is expected in the range of $3.50 to $3.80. EBITDA is expected to be $126-$136 million. Operating cash flow is anticipated to be around $110 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted -10.11% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, ICF has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, ICF has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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