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Gol Linhas (GOL) Updates Q4 & First Quarter 2021 Outlook

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Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes stated in an investor update that the carrier anticipates its capacity to grow 100% in the December-end quarter of 2020 from the levels achieved in third-quarter 2020. During October, the company operated approximately 376 flights a day to a peak of 500 flights per day, thereby covering 95% of the market.

By the end of 2020, Gol Linhas anticipates to re-establish its pre-COVID period domestic market (represents about 80% of the total capacity in 2019). The company expects to end the year with an average of 94 flights operating in the network and maintain a consistent average load factor (% of seats filled with passengers) of 80% in the final quarter of 2020.  

During the fourth quarter, the carrier expects an average operating fleet of 92 flights (representing 78% of the average fleet operated in same period last year). Revenues for December-end quarter is expected to increase approximately 130% sequentially. Total expenses (on an average) are expected to decline 16% year over year owing to cost-containment efforts of the carrier, lower capacity and fuel consumption. During the fourth quarter, the company expects approximately R$2.4 billion in liquidity and R$13.1 billion in adjusted net debt. Net cash burn of R$3 per day is anticipated in the final quarter of 2020.

Update for First Quarter 2021

For first-quarter of 2021, the Latin American airline expects its domestic routes served to increase to 167 on an average (represents about 85% of the total domestic routes served in 2019). The carrier expects an average operating fleet of 102 flights (representing 92% of the average fleet operated in same period 2019). Gol Linhas anticipates an average load factor of 78% in the first quarter of 2021.

Net cash burn of R$2 per day is anticipated for the first quarter of 2021. The carrier aims to operate at 76% of 2019 capacity in the first quarter of next year. Moreover, total liquidity at the end of the quarter is expected to be R$2.5 billion.

Zacks Rank & Key Picks

Gol Linhas carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Some better-ranked stocks in the broader Transportation sector are FedEx Corporation (FDX - Free Report) , Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN - Free Report) and Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc (KNX - Free Report) . All the stocks sport a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Long-term expected earnings per share (three to five years) growth rate for FedEx, Werner and Knight-Swift is pegged at 12%, 13.02% and 15%, respectively.

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