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Unemployment Rate Drops to 6.9% on 638K New Jobs

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Friday, November 6, 2020

A stellar Employment Situation report on non-farm payrolls from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) greeted investors ahead of he opening bell this morning: 638K net jobs were added for the month of October, well ahead of the projections for 530K-600K, with an Unemployment Rate that fell an unheard-of 100 basis points month over month to 6.9%. Consider just a few months ago we’d had a moonshot of an Unemployment Rate of 14.7%. The labor force has done plenty of “work” bringing this down.

This headline figure also accounts for a loss of 268K Government jobs, as census-takers for the year find themselves at the end of their every-decade project. The private sector posted an amazing 906K jobs last month, led by Leisure & Hospitality’s +271K, Professional & Business Services +208K, Retail Trade +104K and Construction 84K. Services brought in 783K jobs in October; Goods came in with an impressive 123K. The Labor Force Participation Rate rose 0.3% to 61.7%, which remains within the long-term range.

Revisions to the past two months also increased notably: +11K to 672K on the September revision, +4K to 1.493 million in August. So while we still see the 12-month chart drift downward from the biggest gains in the pandemic bounce-back, we’re still seeing more jobs than we’d thought previously. Considering the huge amount of layoffs that came during last spring’s shutdown to counter the affects of the coronavirus, the labor market is still down a net 10 million jobs, roughly.

Breaking these job gains down even further, within Leisure & Hospitality we see 192K jobs created in Food Service/Drinking Establishments. Considering the second-wave of Covid-19 cases the U.S. is currently enduring, and how certain regions of the countries are dealing with social establishments, we might not expect these sorts of jobs gains to continue, at least not at this fantastic rate. We currently are seeing well over 100K new cases of Covid per day in the U.S.; this is not a situation food and drinking establishments would consider optimum. The Leisure/Hospitality sector has gained a tremendous amount of job gains since April — 4.8 million — but is still down 3.5 million from February.

Average Hourly Earnings last month rose 4 cents to an average $29.50 per hour, with the private-sector workweek at 34.8 hours. The U-6, aka “real unemployment,” is down to 12.1% as of last month. These figures all add up to a special monthly Employment Situation, and market indexes, which had been pretty deep into the red following a week where the Dow and S&P 500 are up 7%, have now climbed into the green ahead of the opening bell. The strong November rebound continues.

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