Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Hologic, Disney, Quidel, Alibaba, JD.com and Tencent highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day

Read MoreHide Full Article

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – November 16, 2020 – Zacks Equity Research Shares of Hologic, Inc. (HOLX - Free Report) as the Bull of the Day, The Walt Disney Company (DIS - Free Report) asthe Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Quidel Corporation (QDEL - Free Report) , Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA - Free Report) , JD.com, Inc. (JD - Free Report) and Tencent Holdings Limited (TCEHY - Free Report) .

Here is a synopsis of all six stocks:

Bull of the Day:

Hologic is an $18 billion provider of medical diagnostics that specializes in women's health with nearly 75% of the US mammography market share. But they recently reported a stellar "beat-and-raise" quarter on the back of strong sales of COVID-19 testing products.

The company serviced around 32% share of total COVID testing volumes in Q4, with a 50% increase in capacity planned for 2021.

Plus, this strong push into COVID testing is actually strengthening their molecular diagnostics segment which will help the company grow organically long after this crisis is over.

Hologic reported their FY20 Q4 (ended September) on Nov 4, delivering adjusted EPS of $2.07, vs. the consensus of $1.22, for a 70% beat.

Revenue of $1.347 billion, vs. the consensus of $1.12B, increased 55.6% year-over-year. Organic revenue increased 72.5%, as strong sales of COVID tests offset declines in other segments that were slowed down by the pandemic, as patients and doctors could not be as pro-active with regular diagnostics.

In guidance, Hologic sees Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.10-$2.25 vs. consensus of $1.23 and Q1 revenue of $1.35B-$1.425B vs. consensus of $1.13B.

This beat-and-raise quarter prompted analysts to dramatically raise estimates. In the last few weeks, the consensus EPS projection for the new FY21 shot up 46% from $4.33 to $6.34 among eight analysts, which would representing 59% annual growth.

This encompasses the Dec and March quarters which will average 200% year-over-year growth.

Revenues for FY21 are now seeing a consensus of $4.95 billion among six analysts, representing 31% annual growth. This encompasses the Dec and March quarters which are expected to see 54% and 73.6% y-o-y growth.

Filling the CoVoid with Rapid R&D and Sales

As with another COVID testing company I own in Healthcare Innovators, Quidel, the key to winning with testing volumes is having contract manufacturing agreements. Currently selling around 2 million test kits per week and growing, most of Hologic's contracts have been extended to 2021. Here was a recent press release describing company partnerships and goals...

Hologic Awarded U.S. Government Contract to Expand COVID-19 Test Production Capacity

October 30, 2020

-- $119 Million Contract Will Support Scale Up to 13 Million Tests Per Month for U.S. Market –

MARLBOROUGH, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Hologic, Inc. (Nasdaq: HOLX) announced today that it has been awarded a $119 million contract from the United States government to expand its production capacity for COVID-19 molecular tests. The contract will support capital and labor investments enabling Hologic to provide 13 million COVID-19 tests per month for the U.S. market by January of 2022.

Hologic’s Panther Fusion® SARS-CoV-2 Assay and Aptima® SARS-CoV-2 Assay received Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in March 2020 and May 2020, respectively. The tests run on the Company’s fully automated Panther Fusion® and Panther® systems, which provide initial results in approximately three hours and process more than 1,000 tests in 24 hours. More than 2,000 of these systems have been installed in clinical diagnostic laboratories around the world, including in all 50 U.S. states.

And the day after earnings, Hologic announced another breakthrough offering in women's health...

Hologic Launches Comprehensive Omni® Suite for Hysteroscopy

November 5, 2020

-- New Omni 30° hysteroscope and Omni 4K video system provide customizable operative capabilities and powerful visualization to both diagnose and treat patients—

MARLBOROUGH, Mass., November 5, 2020 -- Hologic, Inc. (Nasdaq: HOLX), a global leader in women's health, today launched the Omni® Suite, a comprehensive surgical offering designed to optimize diagnostic and operative hysteroscopy. The offering includes a versatile Omni 30° hysteroscope and innovative Omni 4K video technology to complement the company’s existing portfolio of GYN surgical solutions.

Analyst Views of the Hologic Resurgence

Wall Street outlooks became further bullish after the recent report and price targets also moved up significantly toward the $85-90 area...

Jefferies: Analyst Raj Denhoy raised the firm's price target on Hologic to $98 from $80 following a "monster" quarter driven by $600M in COVID testing revenue and $818M in overall molecular sales. Molecular momentum is expected to continue even beyond COVID given a combination of more machines and a deeper menu, noted Denhoy who raised his FY21 EPS forecast to $6.38 from $3.65.

Needham: Analyst Mike Matson raised the firm's price target on Hologic to $88 from $78 with a Buy rating after the company delivered Q4 revenue that was above its earlier pre-announcement while its organic revenue growth accelerated to 71% from 8% in Q3.

Matson noted that growth in Diagnostics, which had benefited from COVID-19 testing, more than offset the weakness in the Hologic Breast Health and GYN Surgical businesses.

Wells Fargo: Analyst Dan Leonard raised the firm's price target on Hologic to $90 from $80 as he believes the company's growth opportunities in Diagnostics are underappreciated at current levels. In particular, he thinks the Diagnostics business will emerge from the COVID pandemic structurally stronger.

JPMorgan: Analyst Tycho Peterson raised the firm's price target on Hologic to $85 from $75 and kept an Overweight rating on the shares following the company's "significant beat" in fiscal Q4. Hologic is "extremely well positioned to capture the large opportunity" associated with COVID-19 testing he believes.

SVB Leerink: Analyst Richard Newitter raised the firm's price target on Hologic to $94 from $80 citing solid Q4 top and bottom beats and a bullish Q1 outlook with "impressive Panther placement" and COVID testing ramp expectation. Newitter continues to believe the stock offers an attractive relative valuation and an intriguing "COVID Hedge" where Hologic stands to benefit on both sides of COVID.

Bottom line on HOLX: Buy the dips under $70 and look for strong cash flow to aid the company's R&D and expansion of diagnostics and surgical products across several verticals and internationally.

Disclosure: I own shares of HOLX and QDEL for the Zacks Healthcare Innovators portfolio.

Bear of the Day:

Disney reported their fourth quarter for FY20 last week and the recovery from COVID-19 impacts appears to have a ways to go.

The Walt Disney empire reported an adjusted loss of 20 cents per share, beating the analyst consensus by a good amount, but far below year-ago EPS of $1.07.

EPS for the year decreased to $2.02 from $5.76 in the prior year. On the top line, revenues decreased 23.1% from the year-ago quarter to $14.71 billion.

All told for the September quarter, the coronavirus pandemic affected Disney’s segmental operating income by $3.1 billion. The most significant impact was at the Parks, Experiences and Products segment where, since March, theme parks and resorts have been closed or operating at significantly reduced capacity and cruise ship sailings have been suspended.

Obviously the Studio Entertainment segment has been dealt a huge blow as well with movie studio operations and theater revenues still in shut-down mode.

The company report and outlook caused analysts to further lower their estimates for the new fiscal year, with the Zacks EPS Consensus dropping from $2.95 to $2.73.

Yet, DIS shares rallied strongly last week after their report on Thursday, holding on to gains from the big Nov 9 "Pfizer vaccine rally."

That's because despite lowering estimates and pushing DIS stock into the cellar of the Zacks Rank, many analysts were encouraged by several aspects of Disney's business, strong brands and growth prospects into a re-opening economy.

Brand Strength and New Growth

The Media and Networks, Parks and Experiences, and Direct-to-Consumer segments all posted stronger revenue and operating profit than anticipated.

And if ever there was an entertainment company that could adapt during a global crisis, it's clearly this one.

Disney CEO Bob Chapek noted "The real bright spot has been our direct-to-consumer business, which is key to the future of our company, and on this anniversary of the launch of Disney+ we’re pleased to report that, as of the end of the fourth quarter, the service had more than 73 million paid subscribers – far surpassing our expectations in just its first year.”

This result was up from 57.5 million subscribers at the end of the previous quarter, representing over 35% sequential growth.

Media Networks, which comprise 49% of revenues, grew 10.8% year over year to $7.21 billion. This includes revenues from Cable Networks which increased 11% to $4.72 billion while Broadcasting revenues were up 10% year over year to $2.49 billion.

Analysts Scramble to Raise Targets

There are a few things to keep in mind about analyst price targets. First, often they are competing with each other to grab headlines, even if they all use discounted cash flow (DCF) models.

Second, one has to wonder how many felt compelled by the Pfizer vaccine news to err on the side of Disney innovation and creativity into a re-opening economy. Still, it's good to understand their rationale for the upgrade. Here are some analyst notes that stood out to me...

Goldman Sachs analyst Brett Feldman raised the firm's price target on DIS to $156 from $142. "Disney continues to exhibit better than expected momentum with its pivot towards direct-to-consumer streaming video," Feldman told investors in a research note. He sees this continuing as the company launches new markets and new services, and given that Walt Disney World is operating at 35% capacity, management commentary that they are seeing strong demand for the available reservations supports a "rapid recovery in its Parks business post-vaccine."

Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich raised her price target on DIS to $166 from $146 following Q4 results that were significantly better than expected. Based on Disney's "spectacular DTC trends" she anticipates demand for Disney+ will remain strong. Ehrlich sees the company's upcoming analyst day, additional Disney+ rollouts, theme park re-openings and the resumption of feature film releases as near-term catalysts.

RBC Capital analyst Kutgun Maral upgraded Disney to Outperform from Sector Perform with a price target of $170, up from $124. The stock offers investors "unique exposure" to a recovery play supported by a "compelling" COVID hedge through its streaming service, along with its "attractive" underlying businesses like Parks, Consumer Products, and the Studio. Mural adds that Disney's near-term results may remain "noisy" with headwinds from the pandemic looking as far from over, but he is encouraged by the company's "operational green shoots" and continued execution on cost management.

Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall raised his price target on Disney to $155 from $136, but maintains an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Q4 results handily beat estimates due to better operating income at Media, Parks margin management and DTC exceeding company guidance. But he did note that "disruptions make comparability difficult." Cahall believes Disney+ is likely on its way to more than 100 million subscribers, and even feels it is "non-controversial" to suggest medium-term global Disney streaming subscribers in the 250M range.

BMO Capital analyst Daniel Salmon raised the firm's price target on Disney to $165 from $150. The analyst notes that the company "delivered on the promise" of planning for Parks re-opening to be incremental margin positive, while its Disney+ streaming subscriber trends also remain strong with 73.7M vs. his 62.5M target. Salmon is adjusting his DTC value assigned to Disney shares to $100, adding that the focus shift is taking place "faster than expected".

These last two calls are pretty stunning in terms of Disney's future. Potentially 250 million Disney+ subscribers could make the stock worth $200 right now.

Bottom line: It's hard to argue with the value these analysts see in this brand with its strong creative franchises and loyal customer base heading into a digital streaming future. While near-term estimates will be noisy and could keep DIS in the cellar of the Zacks Rank, the potential exists that analysts will be shifting back very soon to raising estimates as core segments see their troughs. The Zacks Rank will let you know.

Additional content:

Time to Get Greedy on Alibaba (BABA - Free Report) Shares

BABA shares have been battered down since the beginning of November due to regulatory concerns. Chinese officials are flexing their muscles to show domestic tech giants who really have control.

They forced the Ant Group IPO suspension last week, which was expected to be the largest IPO in history. Regulators released draft-rules on Wednesday concerning anti-competitive behavior, seemingly targeting tech giants like Alibaba, JD.com and Tencent.

BABA shares are down 17% since open last Monday. This is in the wake of its largest online shopping day of the year for Alibaba: ‘Singles Day’ (11/11). Singles Day discounts lasted 11-days and generated over $74 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV), almost doubling last year’s results.

I believe that the market’s whiplash sell-off of BABA was overdone, creating an excellent buying opportunity. I like BABA at any price below $300, and below $260 where it sits at today is a steal. 16 out of 16 analysts are rating this stock a buy.

Looking for Stocks with Skyrocketing Upside?

Zacks has just released a Special Report on the booming investment opportunities of legal marijuana.

Ignited by referendums and legislation, this industry is expected to blast from an already robust $17.7 billion in 2019 to a staggering $73.6 billion by 2027. Early investors stand to make a killing, but you have to be ready to act and know just where to look.

See the pot stocks we're targeting >>

Media Contact

Zacks Investment Research

800-767-3771 ext. 9339

support@zacks.com

https://www.zacks.com

 

Zacks.com provides investment resources and informs you of these resources, which you may choose to use in making your own investment decisions. Zacks is providing information on this resource to you subject to the Zacks "Terms and Conditions of Service" disclaimer. www.zacks.com/disclaimer.

 

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

Published in