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Why Is Fox (FOXA) Up 19.4% Since Last Earnings Report?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Fox (FOXA - Free Report) . Shares have added about 19.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Fox due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Fox Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y

Fox Corporation reported first-quarter fiscal 2021 adjusted earnings of $1.18 per share that beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 45.7% and increased 42.25 year over year.

Revenues were up 1.9% year over year to $2.71 billion. The figure surpassed the consensus mark by 5.1%.

Affiliate fees (56.4% of revenues) rose 10% to $1.53 billion while Advertising (35.7% of revenues) revenues declined 6.9% to $969 million. Other revenues (7.7% of revenues) declined 7.3% from the year-ago quarter’s levels to $215 million.

Fox became a standalone, publicly-traded company on Mar 21, 2019, following the merger of Disney and Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc.

The standalone Fox’s portfolio comprises Twenty-First Century Fox’s news, sports and broadcast businesses. These include FOX News, FOX Business, FOX Broadcasting Company (the FOX Network), FOX Sports, FOX Television Stations Group, sports cable networks like FS1, FS2, FOX Deportes and Big Ten Network as well as certain other assets.

Top-Line Details

Cable Network Programming (48.8% of revenues) revenues improved 3.1% year over year to $1.32 billion. Revenues from Affiliate fees increased 3.6% year over year, as contractual price increases, including the impact of distribution agreement renewals, were partially offset by net subscriber declines.

Advertising revenues moved up 17.7% year over year, primarily attributed to higher pricing and stronger ratings at FOX News Media were partially offset by the postponement of live events at FS1 as a result of COVID-19.

Other revenues declined 42.4% on a year-over-year basis, primarily due to lower sports sublicensing revenues as a result of COVID-19.

Television (49.7% of revenues) revenues declined marginally by 0.4% from the year-ago quarter’s figure to $1.35 billion. Advertising revenues declined 14.9% year over year primarily due to fewer NFL broadcasts compared to the prior year, the postponement of college football games at FOX Sports and certain scripted programming at FOX Entertainment as a result of COVID-19 and the absence of the prior-year broadcast of the 71st Annual Primetime Emmy Awards.

Meanwhile, Affiliate fees and other revenues increased 23.1% and 5.3%, respectively. Affiliate revenues were driven by increases in fees from third-party FOX affiliates and higher average rates per subscriber, partially offset by net subscriber declines, at the company’s owned and operated television stations.

Operating Details

In first-quarter fiscal 2021, operating expenses fell 20.4% year over year to $1.16 billion. As a percentage of revenues, operating expenses contracted on a year-over-year basis to 43% from 55% in the year-ago quarter.

Selling, general & administrative (SG&A) expenses increased 10.2% on a year-over-year basis to $388 million. As a percentage of revenues, SG&A expenses expanded 110 bps to 14.3%.

The year-over-year increase in SG&A expenses was primarily due to higher costs related to FOX operating as a standalone public company.

Segment EBITDA increased 36.2% year over year to $1.16 billion. EBITDA margin expanded on a year-over-year basis to 42.9% from 32.1% in the year-ago quarter.

Cable Network Programming EBITDA improved 14.2% to $781 million. EBITDA margin grew 570 basis points (bps) to 58.9%.

Television EBITDA jumped 82.1% to $457 million. EBITDA margin expanded on a year-over-year basis to 33.9% from 18.5% in the year-ago quarter.

Balance Sheet

As of Sep 30, 2020, Fox had $5.06 billion in cash and cash equivalents compared with $4.64 billion as of Jun 30, 2020.

Long-term debt as of Sep 30, 2020 was $7.94 billion, which remained flat sequentially.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates review. The consensus estimate has shifted 31.64% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Fox has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. However, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the fifth quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. It comes with little surprise Fox has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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