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Acceleron (XLRN) Up 8.6% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Acceleron Pharma . Shares have added about 8.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Acceleron due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Acceleron Reports Wider-Than-Expected Q3 Loss

Acceleron reported a loss of 66 cents in the third quarter of 2020, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 55 cents but narrower than the year-ago quarter’s 86 cents. The year-over-year growth in revenues offset the increased operating expenses.

The company reported collaboration revenues of $22.6 million in the reported quarter, increasing from $4.2 million in the year-ago quarter but missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $27 million.

Total revenues reported in the quarter include $3.3 million of cost share revenues and $19.3 million of royalty revenues from net sales of Reblozyl (from approximately $96 million in net sales). All revenues were derived from the company's partnership with Bristol Myers Squibb.

In November 2019, the FDA approved Reblozyl for the treatment of anemia in adult patients with beta-thalassemia, who require regular red blood cell or RBC transfusions.

Research and development costs increased to $40.7 million from $37.6 million in the year-ago quarter. Selling, general and administrative costs also grew to $21.0 million from $15.5 million in the year-ago quarter.

Cash, cash equivalents and investments as of Sep 30, 2020, were $887.4 million compared with $453.8 million as of Dec 31, 2019. Based on its current operating plans and projections, Acceleron believes that current cash, cash equivalents and investments along with royalty revenues from Reblozyl sales will be sufficient to fund projected operating requirements for the near future.

In September, Acceleron and partner Bristol Myers Squibb announced that Health Canada approved Reblozyl for the treatment of adult patients with RBC transfusion-dependent anemia associated with beta(β)-thalassemia.


 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 10.4% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Acceleron has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Acceleron has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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