For Immediate Release
Chicago, IL – January 20, 2021 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Features: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (
JPM Quick Quote JPM - Free Report) , The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. ( GS Quick Quote GS - Free Report) , Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ( TSM Quick Quote TSM - Free Report) , NVIDIA Corporation ( NVDA Quick Quote NVDA - Free Report) and Cisco Systems, Inc. ( CSCO Quick Quote CSCO - Free Report) . Is All the Good News Priced In?
Last week was the worst 5 days for the markets since Halloween as investors & traders pause to digest the impending blue wave that was solidified in the Georgia senate election last week and an additional $1.9 trillion in stimulus that appears to be already priced in.
The tech-driven Nasdaq 100 led the charge down last week, shedding 2.3% of its value, followed by the S&P 500, which was down 1.9%. The value-buoyed Dow Jones Industrial Average fell only 0.9%. S&P 500 futures rose over the last two days of slow trading back towards where we opened on Friday morning.
The broader equity markets appear to be reaching a plateau, despite pockets of euphoria.
We traded mostly sideways in the first 3 days of last week into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Q&A session on Thursday afternoon, which began the end of week sell-off. Powell discussed how there is no formula to how far/long the Fed will allow inflation to run but said that they would be utilizing the necessary tools (interest rates/balance sheet flexibility) to control inflation if and when they deem necessary.
It seems that no matter what Powell says, short of adding more monetary stimulus (despite every dovish lever being pulled), the market pulls back. In my judgment, Jerome sobers the market up with rational discussions about interest rates moving forward, and this leads to profit-pulling.
Is all the good news priced in? Probably, but that doesn't mean that this momentous rally is going to end. Like the famous Maynard Keynes said, "the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." So, remain flexible with market sentiment, and stay cautiously optimistic until the tides turn.
This commencing Q4 earnings season will be telling. Focus on corporate sentiment about the next 12-months and how investors respond. This will help us gauge how much optimism is actually baked in.
Big Bank Earnings
The big bank earnings from JPMorgan and others summed up last week on what you would have expected to be a positive note. JPM posted its highest profitability in history, with its bottom-line surging by 47% from the same quarter last year and beating Zacks Consensus EPS estimates by 40%.
Prior to Friday morning's earnings, JPM had driven up over 40% in just 3 months, but the big run this past quarter catalyzed investors to look for any reason to pull profits. JPM CEO Jamie Dimon said that significant economic uncertainty in the short-term could affect the business, which was enough to push the stock down 1.8%.
Citi Group and Wells Fargo both had similar share price rallies in the past quarter, and despite each of them beating Zacks Consensus EPS estimates, they saw declines of roughly 6.9% & 7.8% on Friday, respectively.
Goldman Sachs is the banking sector's knight in shining armor. The firm illustrated unbelievable results in the wake of economic uncertainty as the enterprise takes advantage of the opportunities in the market. GS reported recorded breaking earnings of $12.08 per share, which demonstrated 158% year-over-year growth, and blew Zacks Consensus estimates out of the water by over 72%. Its sales were quite strong as well, showing $11.74 billion, up 18% from the same quarter last year, and beat estimates by 22%.
Equity trading and its deal-making investment banking were the two largest growth drivers for this best-in-class investment bank. David Solomon is proving himself at the helm of this remarkable firm. Investors & traders are happy with what they see and have pushed this stock up 2.5% in pre-market trading, back towards its all-time highs, which it hit on Thursday of last week. I remain a GS buyer despite the run it has already had. This company is adaptable and resourceful, and no matter what the economy throws at it, GS comes out on top.
Demand for chips has surged. Best-in-class and largest chip contractor, TSMC, has illustrated this significant uptick in semiconductor demand with an exciting earnings report that revealed the sector's bright future. The company is working on an atomic scale that no other manufacturer can match, with 20% of its Q4 revenue being driven by 5nm chips. Intel is falling behind the innovative curve that TSMC is setting. Intel is currently working on manufacturing 7nm transistors, putting them at least 3 years behind TSMC's capability.
TSMC announced in its earnings yesterday that it would be spending $25 to $28 billion to further develop its advanced chip manufacturing to keep up with swelling demand. The company released record quarterly results on Thursday with 22% YoY sales growth and 33% YoY EPS appreciation illustrating substantial margin expansion. Its biggest topline drivers of 2020 were smartphones, high-powered computing, and IoT devices. The biggest and baddest chip innovators like Nvidia and others utilize TSMC's cutting-edge manufacturing.
2020 has digitized the world by years in a matter of months with the need for mobile devices proliferating and the 4th Industrial Revolution taking off. Consumers and businesses are leveraging more digital technology than ever before, which means they need for chips has never been greater. I expect that 2021 will be a strong year of growth for the semiconductor space.
As I said, I remain cautiously optimistic. There is still a lot of FOMO investing and trading occurring in the market for those that missed out on the most miraculous & rapid market recovery in Wall Street history. The thirst for risk seems to be at a peak, as investors pour a seemingly unending amount of money into red-inked (unprofitable) stocks with seemingly no regard for valuation.
This stock buying frenzy is reminiscent of the dot-com bubble, where greed and FOMO trading seemed to be the market's primary drivers. Tech giants like Cisco hit their all-time highs and are yet to return after over 2 decades.
The ultra-low interest rate environment that we find ourselves today makes some of the valuation pushes justified as the financial models' denominator shrinks substantially. However, I feel that most of the good news has already been priced in. An inflation spike might be right around the corner.
Jerome and his board of dovish governors have vowed to let inflation run above the target 2% for some time. Still, with all this stimulus and an economy that's expected to explode in 2021, we will see inflation surge much more quickly than the Fed is anticipating. Once any hint of the Fed raising rates or rolling off assets on its balance sheet, the rich market valuations will deflate quickly.
March expiring puts and beyond are how I will be hedging my portfolio in the coming months of uncertainty.
5 Stocks Set to Double
Each was hand-picked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2020. Each comes from a different sector and has unique qualities and catalysts that could fuel exceptional growth.
Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.
Today, See These 5 Potential Home Runs >>
Follow us on Twitter:
Join us on Facebook:
Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities (including a broker-dealer and an investment adviser), which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates.
Zacks Investment Research
800-767-3771 ext. 9339
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss.This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit
https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.