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M&T Bank (MTB) to Post Q4 Earnings: Is a Beat in the Cards?

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M&T Bank Corporation (MTB - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2020 results on Jan 21, before the bell. The company’s revenues and earnings are expected to have declined year over year.

M&T Bank delivered a positive earnings surprise of 5.3% in the third quarter. Prudent expense management, along with rise in loan and deposit balances, supported the results. However, rise in provisions and fall in revenues on lower rates and decline in fee income, were headwinds.

Notably, M&T Bank has a decent earnings surprise history, having surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, with the beat being 6.76%, on average.

M&T Bank Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

M&T Bank Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

M&T Bank Corporation price-eps-surprise | M&T Bank Corporation Quote

Key Factors

Net Interest Income (NII): The overall lending scenario was muted during the October-December quarter, with commercial and industrial, and real estate loan portfolios witnessing a decline. This, along with near-zero interest rates, is likely to have hurt M&T Bank’s NII.

Nevertheless, low deposit costs and higher average interest earning assets might have been offsetting factors.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $128.2 billion for the fourth-quarter average interest earning assets suggests a 15.9% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.

The consensus estimate of $951 million for overall NII suggests a fall of 6.2% on a year-over-year basis.

With LIBOR relatively stable and expectations of additional modest downward trends in deposit costs, management expects NII to be slightly higher in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Fee Income: The company is anticipated to have witnessed growth in trust revenues on strong equity markets during the to-be-reported quarter. Further, mortgage banking revenues are likely to have continued benefiting from lower mortgage rates. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $145 million for mortgage banking income implies a 22.9% year-over-year improvement.

Also, the bank is likely to have registered a rise in service charge on deposits, as the deposit balance is expected to have increased. Thus, overall growth in other income is projected for the quarter to be reported.

Management expects continued solid origination volume in the fourth quarter to have driven mortgage banking revenues. Waivers of money market mutual fund management fees are likely to have affected trust income.

Controlled Expenses: While the absence of considerable legal expenses is encouraging, increased investments in technology to improve digital offerings might have escalated costs to an extent.

Here is what our quantitative model predicts:

M&T Bank has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for M&T Bank is +1.21%.

Zacks Rank: M&T Bank currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.96 for quarterly earnings indicates a 17.8% decline from the year-ago reported number. Furthermore, the consensus estimate for sales of $1.46 billion suggests a 4.4% decline.

Other Banks Worth a Look

Here are a few other bank stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

The Earnings ESP for CullenFrost Bankers (CFR - Free Report) is +4.50% and the stock sports a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), at present. The company is slated to report fourth-quarter 2020 numbers on Jan 28. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Huntington Bancshares (HBAN - Free Report) is set to release earnings figures on Jan 22. The company, which flaunts a Zacks Rank of 1 at present, has an Earnings ESP of +3.39%.

BankUnited, Inc. (BKU - Free Report) is scheduled to announce quarterly results on Jan 21. The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.46% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2.

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