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Pfizer (PFE) to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Pfizer, Inc. (PFE - Free Report) will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 results on Feb 2, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 2.86%.

The drug giant’s performance has been mixed with the company exceeding earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters while missing in one. The company has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.48%, on average.

Pfizer Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Pfizer Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pfizer Inc. price-eps-surprise | Pfizer Inc. Quote

Pfizer’s stock has declined 7.1% in the past year against an increase of 9.7% for the industry.

 

Factors to Note

The upcoming release will be the first quarterly result for the “New Pfizer”. Pfizer’s Biopharma unit has become the “New Pfizer” following the separation of the Upjohn unit. In November, Pfizer completed the transaction to divest its Upjohn Business and combine it with Mylan N.V. to form Viatris (VTRS - Free Report) . Following the transaction, Upjohn was spun off to Pfizer stockholders by way of a pro-rata distribution and immediately thereafter combined with Mylan. Pfizer stockholders received approximately 0.124079 shares of Viatris common stock for every one share of Pfizer.

Higher sales of Pfizer’s key brands, Eliquis, Ibrance and Inlyta, and significant contribution from new drug Vyndaqel/Vyndamax and higher biosimilar revenues are likely to have pushed up sales in the fourth quarter.

Business disruption and reduced doctor visits in the United States are likely to have hurt sales of some brands in the fourth quarter. Though new prescription trends for certain key medicines and vaccination rates improved in the third quarter from second-quarter levels, the pace of recovery was slower than expected. It remains to be seen if the recovery trends have been any better in the fourth quarter.

However, sales of some key drugs like Prevnar 13/Prevenar 13 in the United States, Chantix in the United States and Enbrel in international markets declined in the past two quarters. It remains to be seen if sales improved in the fourth quarter when the company reports.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for oncology and vaccine products is $2.84 billion and $1.93 billion, respectively.

In the quarter, Pfizer and partner BioNTech successfully developed BNT162b2, a two-shot vaccine for COVID-19, which is now approved for emergency/temporary use several countries. Vaccine rollouts were in full swing in the second half of the fourth quarter. BNT162b2 is likely to have added to revenues in the fourth quarter. Final data from a phase III study on BNT162b2, announced in November, showed that the candidate was 95% effective in preventing COVID-19 after two doses were given three weeks apart.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Pfizer this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Its Earnings ESP is -3.20% as the Most Accurate Estimate of 48 cents is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 50 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Pfizer has a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some large drug/biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Eli Lilly (LLY - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.13% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Merck (MRK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.21% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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