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AvalonBay (AVB) Misses on Q4 FFO, Issues Bleak Q1 Outlook
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AvalonBay Communities, Inc.’s (AVB - Free Report) fourth-quarter 2020 core funds from operations (FFO) per share of $2.02 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.09. The reported figure also declined 16.9% year over year from the prior-year quarter’s $2.43.
Total revenues of $555.8 million slipped 6.4% year over year. Also, the revenue figure marginally missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $556.6 million.
Results reflect decline in residential rental revenues on lease rates and concessions as well as uncollectible lease revenues. Moreover, the company has provided a soft first-quarter 2021 outlook, guiding core FFO per share below the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
AvalonBay noted that the timing and strength of recovery, mainly in the urban submarkets is more uncertain than the past cycles, though the transaction market is healthy with suburban assets trading at or above pre-pandemic values.
For full-year 2020, the core FFO per share came in at $8.69, 7% lower than the prior-year tally of $9.34 and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.76 as well. Revenues edged down 1% year on year to $2.3 billion.
The company also noted about the residential revenue collections for established communities, through Jan 31. Collected residential revenues for the fourth quarter improved to 95.9% as of Jan 31 from 94.8% at fourth-quarter end. In addition, the third-quarter rent collections were 97.1%, up from 95.2% at third-quarter end, while second-quarter rent collections improved to 98.1% as of Jan 31 from 95.4% at second-quarter end. Collected residential revenues for January 2021 was 92.9% as of Jan 31.
Quarter in Detail
In the reported quarter, revenues from established communities decreased 8.7% year over year to nearly $486 million. Dismal residential and commercial uncollectible lease revenues resulted in this decrease.
Operating expenses for established communities flared up 5.8% on a year-over-year basis. Consequently, net operating income (NOI) from established communities dropped 14.3% year on year to $328.6 million.
During the October-December period, the company accomplished the development of four consolidated apartment communities. The communities contain 1,044 apartment homes and were constructed for $385 million.
As of Dec 31, 2020, AvalonBay had 16 consolidated development communities under construction (expected to contain 5,128 apartment homes and 62,000 square feet of commercial space). The estimated total capital cost at completion for these development communities is $1.95 billion.
In the December-end quarter, the company acquired three land parcels for future development, for a total investment of $77.35 million. During the same period, the company sold six wholly-owned operating communities for a total of $444.1 million, leading to an economic gain of $160.5 million.
During the fourth quarter, the company sold 11 of the 172 residential condominiums at The Park Loggia, in New York, NY, for gross proceeds of $33.86 million.
BalanceSheet Position
As of Dec 31, 2020, AvalonBay did not have any borrowings outstanding under its $1.75-billion unsecured credit facility. The company had $313.5 million in unrestricted cash and cash in escrow as of the same date. In addition, its annualized net debt-to-core EBITDAre for the October-December quarter was 5.4 times and unencumbered NOI was 94%.
Stock-Repurchase Program
Last July, AvalonBay’s board of directors approved a new stock-repurchase program, under which it might acquire shares of its common stock up to an aggregate purchase price of $500 million in open market or negotiated transactions. There is no expiration date for this stock-repurchase program. In the fourth quarter, the company repurchased 313,057 shares of common stock at an average price of $148.25 per share under this program.
Outlook
For first-quarter 2021, the company expects core FFO per share in the range of $1.85 and $1.95, which is below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.09.
The company expects established communities residential revenues to be down 8.5-10%, operating expense to flare up 2.8-5.8% and NOI to slip 13.2-16.2%.
For full-year 2021, the company projects total capital cost for development starts of $650-$850 million, total capital cost for development completions of $1.1 billion and projected NOI from development communities of $40-$50 million.
AvalonBay currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA - Free Report) , commonly referred to as MAA, reported fourth-quarter 2020 core funds from operations (FFO) per share of $1.65, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.64. However, the reported figure marginally declined from the year-ago figure of $1.66. The residential REIT’s quarterly results were driven by an increase in average effective rent per unit for the same-store portfolio. Positive rent growth also aided same store portfolio revenue growth during the quarter.
We now look forward to the earnings releases of other residential REITs like UDR Inc. (UDR - Free Report) and Equity Residential (EQR - Free Report) scheduled for the next week.
Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represent funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.
5 Stocks Set to Double
Each was hand-picked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2020. Each comes from a different sector and has unique qualities and catalysts that could fuel exceptional growth.
Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.
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AvalonBay (AVB) Misses on Q4 FFO, Issues Bleak Q1 Outlook
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.’s (AVB - Free Report) fourth-quarter 2020 core funds from operations (FFO) per share of $2.02 missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.09. The reported figure also declined 16.9% year over year from the prior-year quarter’s $2.43.
Total revenues of $555.8 million slipped 6.4% year over year. Also, the revenue figure marginally missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $556.6 million.
Results reflect decline in residential rental revenues on lease rates and concessions as well as uncollectible lease revenues. Moreover, the company has provided a soft first-quarter 2021 outlook, guiding core FFO per share below the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
AvalonBay noted that the timing and strength of recovery, mainly in the urban submarkets is more uncertain than the past cycles, though the transaction market is healthy with suburban assets trading at or above pre-pandemic values.
For full-year 2020, the core FFO per share came in at $8.69, 7% lower than the prior-year tally of $9.34 and missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.76 as well. Revenues edged down 1% year on year to $2.3 billion.
The company also noted about the residential revenue collections for established communities, through Jan 31. Collected residential revenues for the fourth quarter improved to 95.9% as of Jan 31 from 94.8% at fourth-quarter end. In addition, the third-quarter rent collections were 97.1%, up from 95.2% at third-quarter end, while second-quarter rent collections improved to 98.1% as of Jan 31 from 95.4% at second-quarter end. Collected residential revenues for January 2021 was 92.9% as of Jan 31.
Quarter in Detail
In the reported quarter, revenues from established communities decreased 8.7% year over year to nearly $486 million. Dismal residential and commercial uncollectible lease revenues resulted in this decrease.
Operating expenses for established communities flared up 5.8% on a year-over-year basis. Consequently, net operating income (NOI) from established communities dropped 14.3% year on year to $328.6 million.
During the October-December period, the company accomplished the development of four consolidated apartment communities. The communities contain 1,044 apartment homes and were constructed for $385 million.
As of Dec 31, 2020, AvalonBay had 16 consolidated development communities under construction (expected to contain 5,128 apartment homes and 62,000 square feet of commercial space). The estimated total capital cost at completion for these development communities is $1.95 billion.
In the December-end quarter, the company acquired three land parcels for future development, for a total investment of $77.35 million. During the same period, the company sold six wholly-owned operating communities for a total of $444.1 million, leading to an economic gain of $160.5 million.
During the fourth quarter, the company sold 11 of the 172 residential condominiums at The Park Loggia, in New York, NY, for gross proceeds of $33.86 million.
BalanceSheet Position
As of Dec 31, 2020, AvalonBay did not have any borrowings outstanding under its $1.75-billion unsecured credit facility. The company had $313.5 million in unrestricted cash and cash in escrow as of the same date. In addition, its annualized net debt-to-core EBITDAre for the October-December quarter was 5.4 times and unencumbered NOI was 94%.
Stock-Repurchase Program
Last July, AvalonBay’s board of directors approved a new stock-repurchase program, under which it might acquire shares of its common stock up to an aggregate purchase price of $500 million in open market or negotiated transactions. There is no expiration date for this stock-repurchase program. In the fourth quarter, the company repurchased 313,057 shares of common stock at an average price of $148.25 per share under this program.
Outlook
For first-quarter 2021, the company expects core FFO per share in the range of $1.85 and $1.95, which is below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.09.
The company expects established communities residential revenues to be down 8.5-10%, operating expense to flare up 2.8-5.8% and NOI to slip 13.2-16.2%.
For full-year 2021, the company projects total capital cost for development starts of $650-$850 million, total capital cost for development completions of $1.1 billion and projected NOI from development communities of $40-$50 million.
AvalonBay currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | AvalonBay Communities, Inc. Quote
Performance of Another Residential REIT
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA - Free Report) , commonly referred to as MAA, reported fourth-quarter 2020 core funds from operations (FFO) per share of $1.65, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.64. However, the reported figure marginally declined from the year-ago figure of $1.66. The residential REIT’s quarterly results were driven by an increase in average effective rent per unit for the same-store portfolio. Positive rent growth also aided same store portfolio revenue growth during the quarter.
We now look forward to the earnings releases of other residential REITs like UDR Inc. (UDR - Free Report) and Equity Residential (EQR - Free Report) scheduled for the next week.
Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represent funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.
5 Stocks Set to Double
Each was hand-picked by a Zacks expert as the #1 favorite stock to gain +100% or more in 2020. Each comes from a different sector and has unique qualities and catalysts that could fuel exceptional growth.
Most of the stocks in this report are flying under Wall Street radar, which provides a great opportunity to get in on the ground floor.
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