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What to Expect From Martin Marietta's (MLM) Q4 Earnings

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Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2020 results on Feb 9, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 25.3% but revenues (products and services) lagged the same by 0.8%. On a year-over-year basis, earnings of this aggregates producer grew 18.9% but revenues dropped 7% from a year ago.

Martin Marietta’s earnings topped the consensus mark in two of the last four quarters and missed the same on the other two occasions, with the average surprise being 2.3%.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has increased 1.3% over the past seven days to $2.30 per share, which suggests a 10.1% increase from $2.09 reported in the year-ago period. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.04 billion, which calls for 2% growth from the prior-year reported figure.

Factors to Note

Martin Marietta’s earnings and revenues are expected to have witnessed year-over-year growth (albeit soft) in the fourth quarter. Softer demand resulting from businesses or the government’s budget shortfalls resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic may reflect on the upcoming results. Large non-residential projects have been experiencing delays due to prevailing uncertainty owing to the COVID-19 outbreak.

Meanwhile, infrastructure, construction — particularly for aggregates intensive highways, roads and streets — is expected to have remained resilient in the quarter, as contractors advanced projects that have been awarded and funded. Also, favorable weather conditions may have been a tailwind.

Martin Marietta’s business and earnings have been sensitive to changes in construction spending, particularly housing and public construction in Texas, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, as well as Iowa. Although softer public spending in North Carolina may have been a concern, impressive aggregate shipment in Texas — one of the largest states served by Martin Marietta — will likely help the company post improved year-over-year results.

Overall, despite mixed volumes, pricing (strongest in aggregates) and a favorable cost environment (including lower diesel) are likely to have supported its margins. Although limited visibility in nonresidential construction may have been a concern, strong residential construction and healthier DOT spending than originally expected are likely to have been positives.

Other Projections

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Building Material segment revenues — which comprises 95% of total revenues — is pegged at $1,017 million, implying a 2.6% decline from a year ago.

The consensus estimate for Magnesia Specialties revenues is currently pegged at $55 million. This suggests a decrease from $56 million in the prior-year quarter.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Martin Marietta this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that's not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Martin Marietta has an Earnings ESP of -0.68%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: It currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stocks Worth a Look

Here are some companies in the Zacks Construction sector, which according to our model have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their respective quarters to be reported.

AECOM (ACM - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.88% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Century Communities, Inc. (CCS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.09% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Masco Corporation (MAS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.17% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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