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Factors Setting the Tone for Under Armour's (UAA) Q4 Earnings

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Under Armour, Inc. (UAA - Free Report) is likely to register a decline in the top line when it reports fourth-quarter 2020 numbers on Feb 10, 2021, before the market opens. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1,266 million, indicating a decline of 12.2% from the prior-year reported figure.

Further, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter bottom line slipped to a loss of 7 cents from a loss of 6 cents over the past 60 days. The Baltimore, MD-based company had reported earnings of 10 cents a share in the year-ago period.

We note that the company’s bottom line has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last two reported quarters. This developer, marketer and distributor of apparel, footwear, and accessories has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 123.4%, on average.

Key Things to Note

Under Armour has been bearing the brunt of tough operating environment and stiff competition. Although the company has been taking every step to address the challenges, revenues and margins are likely to have remained under pressure. On its last earnings call, Under Armour projected a low-teen percentage rate decline in revenues for the fourth quarter. Management also guided significant gross margin pressure due to highly promotional environment compared with the last year.

Revenues are likely to reflect a shift in the timing of spring product deliveries to early 2021, sharp fall in licensing revenues due to lower contractual royalty minimums and contract settlements, and lower year-over-year sales to the off-price channel. Under Armour had forecast a 50% decline in licensing revenues.

Nonetheless, Under Armour has been focusing on strengthening brand through enhanced customer connections and strict go-to-market process. Moreover, the expansion of direct-to-consumer business, product innovation and focus on technology-based fitness business appear encouraging. We note that the company has been taking several actions to stay firm amid the ongoing coronavirus crisis. These includes strengthening supply chain, managing inventory and containing costs. The company has been also curbing non-essential operating expenses and optimizing capital expenditures.

Under Armour, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Under Armour, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Under Armour, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Under Armour, Inc. Quote

Sneak Peek into Estimates

We note that the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter revenues for Apparel and Footwear categories are pegged at $852 million and $218 million, respectively, indicating declines of 12.2% and 15.9% year over year. The consensus estimate for Accessories stands at $112 million, suggesting an improvement of 1.9% from the prior-year quarter.

Furthermore, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues at North America, EMEA, and Latin America segments are pegged at $849 million, $153 million and $46.85 million, respectively. These figures suggest respective declines of 13.6% and 15.3% for North America and EMEA on a year-over-year basis. The same for Latin America indicates a decline of 14.9%. Nonetheless, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $190 million for Asia-Pacific suggests an increase of about 3.8% from the year-ago period.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model conclusively predicts an earnings beat for Under Armour this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Under Armour has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +16.49%.

Other Stocks With a Favorable Combination

Here are some other companies that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time around:

Genesco (GCO - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.63% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Foot Locker (FL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.40% and a Zacks Rank #2.

L Brands has an Earnings ESP of +5.96% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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