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Will Cincinnati Financial (CINF) Top Estimates in Q4 Earnings?

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Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter 2020 results on Feb 10, after market close. The company delivered an earnings surprise in one of the three reported quarters of 2020.

Factors to Consider    

Better pricing, renewal price increases, higher level of insured exposure and disciplined expansion of Cincinnati Re are likely to have aided premiums in the to-be-reported quarter. Also, the company’s agent-focused business model is likely to have been a positive. The Zacks Consensus Estimate of premiums earned is pegged at $1.5 billion.

Despite a still low interest rate environment, improving cash flow from operating activities is estimated to have aided investment income.

Exposure to cat losses is expected to have weighed on underwriting profitability. The consensus estimate for combined ratio at Insurance segment is pegged at 93, a deterioration of 1000 basis points from year ago reported quarter.

Total benefits and expenses are likely to have increased mainly due to higher insurance loss and contract holders’ benefits, underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses. This, in turn, might have weighed on operating margin.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2020 earnings per share is pegged at $1.17, indicating a decline of 4.9% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.6 billion, indicating a decline of 2.3% from the year-ago reported figure.

What the Zacks Model Says

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Cincinnati Financial this time around. This is because it has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) that increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: Cincinnati Financial has an Earnings ESP of +2.72%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.20 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.17. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
 

Zacks Rank: Cincinnati Financial currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Other Stocks to Consider

Some other insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to come up with an earnings beat this time around are:

Arch Capital Group (ACGL - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
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Manulife Financial (MFC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.95% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Sun Life Financial (SLF - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +12.50% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

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