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Target (TGT) Queues Up for Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Target Corporation (TGT - Free Report) is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2020 results on Mar 2, before the market opens. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $27,513 million, indicating growth of 17.6% from the prior-year reported figure.

Further, the bottom line of this general merchandise retailer is anticipated to improve year over year. We note that the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the quarter under review has risen by 2% to $2.52 over the past seven days. The figure suggests a sharp improvement from $1.69 reported in the year-ago period.

Notably, the company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 52.4%, on average. In the last reported quarter, this Minneapolis, MN-based company's bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a significant margin.

Key Factors to Note

Target’s fourth-quarter performance is likely to have benefited from consumers’ increasing demand for home office items, décor, domestics and kitchenware as they work, learn and dine at home due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Markedly, the company’s focus on enhancing omni-channel capacities, remodeling stores and expanding same-day delivery options is commendable.

Target’s commitment to offer unique shopping experience with safe and convenient options including contactless Drive Up and Order Pickup, and same-day delivery with Shipt are worth mentioning. Customers have been responding positively to such shopping tools.

Target had informed that comparable sales in the combined November/December period increased 17.2%, backed by 12.3% jump in average ticket as consumers consolidated trips. Comparable traffic grew 4.3%. While store-originated comparable sales rose 4.2%, comparable digital sales soared 102% driven primarily by the company's same-day fulfillment services.

We note that Home registered comparable-sales growth in the low-20% range during the November/December period. Comparable sales in Hardlines also surged in the low 20% range, reflecting mid-20% gain in Electronics. In Food & Beverage, comparable sales growth was in line with the company average, while Beauty & Essentials registered increase in the low teens. Apparel posted comparable sales growth in the high-single digit range.

Clearly, aforementioned factors raise optimism about the outcome of the results. However, margins still remain an area to watch. Impact of costs associated with digital fulfilment, supply chain and COVID-19 related expenses cannot be ruled out. We note that costs related to additional employee payments and benefits, and investments undertaken to preserve safety and health of customers and team members amid the coronavirus crisis may have weighed on margins.

Target Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Target Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Target Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Target Corporation Quote

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Target this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Target has a Zacks Rank #2 and an Earnings ESP of +2.48%.

3 More Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are three other companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat:

Dollar Tree (DLTR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.94% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Costco (COST - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +2.43% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Dollar General (DG - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.32% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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