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Molina (MOH) Up 5.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Molina (MOH - Free Report) . Shares have added about 5.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Molina due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Molina Healthcare Posts Q4 Loss, Misses on Revenues

Molina Healthcare reported fourth-quarter 2020 adjusted loss of 51 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was of earnings of 90 cents per share. Moreover, the bottom line came against the year-ago quarter’s earnings of $2.73 per share, mainly due to higher expenses and the COVID-19 impact.

Total revenues of $5.2 billion also missed the consensus mark by 1.3%.
However, the top line rose 22.5% year over year on increased membership, mainly in Medicaid as well as owing to accretive YourCare and Passport acquisitions.

Quarterly Operational Update

The company’s net income totaled $34 million, down 79.8% year over year.
Total operating expenses increased 27.6% year over year to $5.1 billion due to higher medical care costs, general and administrative expenses, premium tax expenses, health insurer fees and other expenses.

Molina Healthcare’s interest expenses climbed 50% year over year to $30 million.

Total membership under Government Program at the end of the fourth quarter stands at 4 billion, up 21% year over year.

Financial Update

As of Dec 31, 2020, Molina Healthcare’s cash and cash equivalents surged 69.4% to $4.1 billion from the level at 2019 end.

Total assets rose 40.4% from the level at 2019 end to $9.5 billion.

The company’s shareholder equity improved 6.9% from the figure at 2019 end to $2 billion.

As of Dec 31, 2020, net cash flow provided by operating activities stood at $1.9 billion compared with $427 million at 2019 end.

Share Repurchase Update

In September, the company’s board of directors approved a share buyback plan of up to $500 million.

2021 Guidance

Following fourth-quarter results, the company issued its outlook for 2021.
Premium revenue growth is projected to be more than 25%. Adjusted EPS is estimated in the band of $12.50-$13 per share.

Total revenues for 2021 are anticipated to be more than $24 billion.

Full-Year Update

For 2020, net income of the company was $11.23, down 2.1% from the year-ago period.

In 2020, the company’s total revenues were up 15% year over year to $19.4 billion, mainly on the back of higher membership.
 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -7.4% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Molina has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Molina has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.


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