A month has gone by since the last earnings report for PDC Energy . Shares have lost about 9.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is PDC Energy due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
PDC Energy Q4 Earnings Top on Strong Production
PDC Energy reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.10, comfortably ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 82 cents. The company had reported profit of 60 cents in the year-ago quarter. The outperformance can be primarily attributed to better-than-anticipated production volumes. Precisely, the Colorado-focused company’s output of 16,574 thousand barrels of oil-equivalent (MBoe) surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 16,135 MBoe.
Meanwhile, PDC Energy recorded total revenues of $278.6 million, missing the consensus mark by 22.8% due to lower oil price realizations. However, the top line came in higher than the year-ago level of $265 million.
Production & Prices
For the fourth quarter of 2020, PDC Energy’s production totaled 16,574 MBoe (58% liquids), reflecting an increase of 27% from 13,060 MBoe a year ago. Of the aggregate output, 13,952 MBoe (or 84%) came from Wattenberg Field and the rest from Delaware Basin.
The average realized natural gas price increased from $1.28 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in the year-ago quarter to $1.58. PDC Energy sold NGLs at an average price of $12.76 per barrels (Bbls) compared to $13.82 a year ago. Meanwhile, the average oil price realization came in at $40.43 per barrel, 24% lower than $53.13 in the year-ago period. Overall, the company fetched $20.72 per MBoe compared with $26.02 a year ago.
Capital Expenditure & Balance Sheet
The energy explorer shelled out $110 million in the form of oil and gas capital investments. As of Dec 31, PDC Energy had approximately $2.6 million in cash and cash equivalents, and $1.4 billion in long-term debt, representing a debt-to-capitalization of 35%.
Guidance
PDC Energy expects to churn out 190,000-200,000 Boe per day in 2021, up from the prior guidance of 175,000-185,000 Boe per day. However, it reiterated its oil production guidance of 64,000-68,000 Bbls per day. Further, the company still expects to spend between $500 million and $600 million this year and plans to generate free cash flow in excess of $400 million (at a WTI price of $45, natural gas at $2.5 and NGL at $12).
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.
VGM Scores
Currently, PDC Energy has a nice Growth Score of B, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, PDC Energy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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PDC Energy (PDCE) Down 9.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for PDC Energy . Shares have lost about 9.1% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is PDC Energy due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
PDC Energy Q4 Earnings Top on Strong Production
PDC Energy reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.10, comfortably ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 82 cents. The company had reported profit of 60 cents in the year-ago quarter. The outperformance can be primarily attributed to better-than-anticipated production volumes. Precisely, the Colorado-focused company’s output of 16,574 thousand barrels of oil-equivalent (MBoe) surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 16,135 MBoe.
Meanwhile, PDC Energy recorded total revenues of $278.6 million, missing the consensus mark by 22.8% due to lower oil price realizations. However, the top line came in higher than the year-ago level of $265 million.
Production & Prices
For the fourth quarter of 2020, PDC Energy’s production totaled 16,574 MBoe (58% liquids), reflecting an increase of 27% from 13,060 MBoe a year ago. Of the aggregate output, 13,952 MBoe (or 84%) came from Wattenberg Field and the rest from Delaware Basin.
The average realized natural gas price increased from $1.28 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in the year-ago quarter to $1.58. PDC Energy sold NGLs at an average price of $12.76 per barrels (Bbls) compared to $13.82 a year ago. Meanwhile, the average oil price realization came in at $40.43 per barrel, 24% lower than $53.13 in the year-ago period. Overall, the company fetched $20.72 per MBoe compared with $26.02 a year ago.
Capital Expenditure & Balance Sheet
The energy explorer shelled out $110 million in the form of oil and gas capital investments. As of Dec 31, PDC Energy had approximately $2.6 million in cash and cash equivalents, and $1.4 billion in long-term debt, representing a debt-to-capitalization of 35%.
Guidance
PDC Energy expects to churn out 190,000-200,000 Boe per day in 2021, up from the prior guidance of 175,000-185,000 Boe per day. However, it reiterated its oil production guidance of 64,000-68,000 Bbls per day. Further, the company still expects to spend between $500 million and $600 million this year and plans to generate free cash flow in excess of $400 million (at a WTI price of $45, natural gas at $2.5 and NGL at $12).
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.
VGM Scores
Currently, PDC Energy has a nice Growth Score of B, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with an A. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, PDC Energy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.