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UFP Industries (UFPI) Up 16.5% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for UFP Industries (UFPI - Free Report) . Shares have added about 16.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is UFP Industries due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

UFP Industries (UFPI - Free Report) Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates

UFP Industries, Inc. reported impressive fourth-quarter 2020 results. Both earnings and revenues not only surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate but also improved significantly on a year-over-year basis.

The company’s results in the quarter were driven by robust performance of UFP Retail Solutions, which benefited from increased lumber prices and higher consumer demand.

Notably, the company completed the acquisition of PalletOne and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Sunbelt Forest Products (Sunbelt), at the beginning of fiscal 2021. The transaction is valued at $259 million.

Earnings & Revenue Discussion

During the reported quarter, UFP Industries reported earnings of $1.02 per share, comfortably surpassing the consensus mark of 81 cents by 25.9% and increasing 67.2% from the year-ago period.

Net sales of $1.39 billion outpaced the consensus mark of $1.20 billion by 16.4% and improved 39.6% on a year-over-year basis. The increase was driven by a 25% rise in lumber pricing and 15% increase in units sold. New product sales grew 46% year over year.

End-Market Sales Discussion

UFP Retail: The segment reported sales of $505.2 million during the quarter, up 76% year over year. Unit sales were also rose 38% from the year-ago quarter, backed by 38% growth in Home and Decor, 25% rise in ProWood, 27% increase in UFP Edge, 64% improvement in Outdoor Essentials, and 80% increase in Deckorators. Selling prices drove the same by 38%.

UFP Industrial: The Industrial segment’s sales totaled $309.1 million, reflecting growth of 25% from the year-ago period. During the quarter, unit sales rose 10% year over year and selling prices increased 15%.

UFP Construction: Sales in the segment were $508.3 million, up 24% year over year. This improvement in the segment sales is mainly attributable to the increase in selling price. Unit sales to residential and manufactured housing customers rose 16% and 11%, respectively. Unit sales to commercial customers fell 30%, with an organic unit sales decrease of 35% offset by a 5% unit sales increase from acquisitions.

Operating Highlights

Gross margin of 13.4% contracted 240 basis points (bps) year over year. Selling, general and administrative expenses — accounting for 6.2% of net sales — improved 430 bps year over year. EBITDA of $118.2 million increased 66.8% year over year.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

At the end of 2020, cash and cash equivalents were $436.5 million, significantly up from $168.3 million at 2019-end. In 2020, net cash from operating activities totaled $336.5 million compared with $349.3 million in 2019.

Meanwhile, the company’s the board of directors has raised annual dividend by 20% to 60 cents per share, payable on Mar 15, 2021.

2020 Highlights

Net sales in 2020 came in at $5.15 billion compared with $4.42 billion in 2019, up 16.7%. Total earnings from operations increased 41.2% to $345.8 million from $244.9 million in 2019.

Adjusted EBITDA in 2020 rose 35.9% to $431.4 from $317.3 million in 2019.

Adjusted earnings per share in 2020 came in at $4.00 compared with $2.91 in 2019.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 36.87% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, UFP Industries has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision looks promising. It comes with little surprise UFP Industries has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.


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