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UPS (UPS) Soars to 52-Week High, Time to Cash Out?

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Have you been paying attention to shares of United Parcel Service (UPS - Free Report) ? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 18.9% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $204.5 in the previous session. United Parcel Service has gained 21% since the start of the year compared to the 12.3% move for the Zacks Transportation sector and the 18.9% return for the Zacks Transportation - Air Freight and Cargo industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on April 27, 2021, UPS reported EPS of $2.77 versus consensus estimate of $1.67.

For the current fiscal year, UPS is expected to post earnings of $10.23 per share on $90.8 billion in revenues. This represents a 24.3% change in EPS on a 7.3% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $10.68 per share on $93.21 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 4.45% and 2.65%, respectively.

Valuation Metrics

UPS may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. Investors should consider the style scores a valuable tool that can help you to pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

UPS has a Value Score of C. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are A and B, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of B.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 19.9X current fiscal year EPS estimates. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 17.9X versus its peer group's average of 9.9X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 2.28. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, UPS currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) thanks to favorable earnings estimate revisions from covering analysts.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if UPS fits the bill. Thus, it seems as though UPS shares could have potential in the weeks and months to come.


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