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Moderna (MRNA) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
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Moderna, Inc. (MRNA - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 6, before market open.
The company’s surprise history has been mixed so far with its earnings beating estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, while missing the same twice. The average negative surprise is 48.48%. In the last reported quarter, Moderna delivered a negative earnings surprise of 176.00%.
Moderna’s share price has surged 71.2% so far this year against the industry’s decrease of 2%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.
Factors to Note
Moderna received FDA approval for emergency use of its mRNA-based coronavirus vaccine, mRNA-1273, in December last year in adults. The vaccine is the company’s first commercial product. The vaccine received similar regulatory approvals in a few other countries during the quarter, including Europe and Canada. The company supplied more than 88 million doses of mRNA-1273 to the United States and several million doses to other countries during the first quarter. Sales of the vaccine are likely to have driven the company’s top line in the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total revenues stands at $1.97 billion.
The company is also developing the vaccine for pediatric and adolescents. Moreover, the company is also developing a COVID-19 variant-specific vaccine candidate, mRNA-1273.351, and a next-generation vaccine candidate against COVID-19, mRNA-1283. Ongoing clinical studies and activities to support supply of the vaccine to different countries are likely to have driven operating expenses higher during the quarter. The company may provide clinical update on these new vaccine candidates on its earnings call.
Meanwhile, Moderna has a funding commitment of up to $955 million from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (“BARDA”) in place to develop its coronavirus vaccine candidate in 2021. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for grant revenues is pegged at $113 million.
Investors are likely to focus on any comments from the company related to requirement of a third-dose to boost long-term immunity against original COVID-19 virus and its new strains. A third-dose, if needed, will likely bring more billions of dollars in revenues going forward. The company has provided its manufacturing plans for mRNA-1273 for 2021 and 2022. Investors may also like to know the company’s view on demand for its COVID-19 vaccines beyond 2022.
Apart from its COVID-19 vaccine candidates, Moderna is developing several other mRNA-based products targeting different indications including cancer. The company also has collaborations under which its partners like AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) and Merck (MRK - Free Report) use its mRNA technology for development of therapies targeting different indications. The partners pay milestone payments to Moderna, which are likely to be reflected as collaboration revenues. These collaborations revenues can vary every quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for collaboration revenues for the first quarter is pegged at $15.34 million.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Moderna this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of a positive surprise. But that is not the case here as discussed below.
Earnings ESP: Moderna has an Earnings ESP of -10.29% as the Most Accurate Estimate currently stands at $1.83 per share while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.04 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Moderna currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Here is a biotech stock that you may want to consider, as our model shows that it has the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in its upcoming release.
Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple-Digit Profit Potential
The biotech sector is projected to surge beyond $775 billion by 2024 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases. They’re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases.
Zacks has just released Century of Biology: 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance. Our recent biotech recommendations have produced gains of +50%, +83% and +164% in as little as 2 months. The stocks in this report could perform even better.
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Moderna (MRNA) to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA - Free Report) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2021 results on May 6, before market open.
The company’s surprise history has been mixed so far with its earnings beating estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, while missing the same twice. The average negative surprise is 48.48%. In the last reported quarter, Moderna delivered a negative earnings surprise of 176.00%.
Moderna’s share price has surged 71.2% so far this year against the industry’s decrease of 2%.
Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.
Factors to Note
Moderna received FDA approval for emergency use of its mRNA-based coronavirus vaccine, mRNA-1273, in December last year in adults. The vaccine is the company’s first commercial product. The vaccine received similar regulatory approvals in a few other countries during the quarter, including Europe and Canada. The company supplied more than 88 million doses of mRNA-1273 to the United States and several million doses to other countries during the first quarter. Sales of the vaccine are likely to have driven the company’s top line in the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total revenues stands at $1.97 billion.
The company is also developing the vaccine for pediatric and adolescents. Moreover, the company is also developing a COVID-19 variant-specific vaccine candidate, mRNA-1273.351, and a next-generation vaccine candidate against COVID-19, mRNA-1283. Ongoing clinical studies and activities to support supply of the vaccine to different countries are likely to have driven operating expenses higher during the quarter. The company may provide clinical update on these new vaccine candidates on its earnings call.
Meanwhile, Moderna has a funding commitment of up to $955 million from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (“BARDA”) in place to develop its coronavirus vaccine candidate in 2021. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for grant revenues is pegged at $113 million.
Investors are likely to focus on any comments from the company related to requirement of a third-dose to boost long-term immunity against original COVID-19 virus and its new strains. A third-dose, if needed, will likely bring more billions of dollars in revenues going forward. The company has provided its manufacturing plans for mRNA-1273 for 2021 and 2022. Investors may also like to know the company’s view on demand for its COVID-19 vaccines beyond 2022.
Apart from its COVID-19 vaccine candidates, Moderna is developing several other mRNA-based products targeting different indications including cancer. The company also has collaborations under which its partners like AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) and Merck (MRK - Free Report) use its mRNA technology for development of therapies targeting different indications. The partners pay milestone payments to Moderna, which are likely to be reflected as collaboration revenues. These collaborations revenues can vary every quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for collaboration revenues for the first quarter is pegged at $15.34 million.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Moderna this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of a positive surprise. But that is not the case here as discussed below.
Earnings ESP: Moderna has an Earnings ESP of -10.29% as the Most Accurate Estimate currently stands at $1.83 per share while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $2.04 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Moderna currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Moderna, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Moderna, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Moderna, Inc. Quote
A Stock That Warrants a Look
Here is a biotech stock that you may want to consider, as our model shows that it has the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in its upcoming release.
Milestone Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MIST - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +19.21% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Breakout Biotech Stocks with Triple-Digit Profit Potential
The biotech sector is projected to surge beyond $775 billion by 2024 as scientists develop treatments for thousands of diseases. They’re also finding ways to edit the human genome to literally erase our vulnerability to these diseases.
Zacks has just released Century of Biology: 7 Biotech Stocks to Buy Right Now to help investors profit from 7 stocks poised for outperformance. Our recent biotech recommendations have produced gains of +50%, +83% and +164% in as little as 2 months. The stocks in this report could perform even better.
See these 7 breakthrough stocks now>>