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Why Is Sirius XM (SIRI) Up 1.3% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Sirius XM (SIRI - Free Report) . Shares have added about 1.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Sirius XM due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Sirius XM Q1 Earnings Beat, Subscriber Revenues Rise

Sirius XM Holdings reported first-quarter 2021 earnings of 7 cents per share that beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 16.7% but remained unchanged year over year.

Total revenues on a reported basis increased 5.4% year over year to $2.05 billion. The figure beat the consensus mark by 3%. On a pro-forma basis, revenues increased 5.3% year over year.

Subscriber revenues (78.3% of total revenues) rose 1.6% from the year-ago quarter to $1.61 billion.

Meanwhile, advertisement revenues (17.2%) increased 24.2% year over year to $354 million. Equipment revenues (2.8% of total revenues) surged 39% year over year to $57 million.

Other revenues (1.7% of total revenues) decreased 16.3% from the year-ago quarter to $36 million.

Sirius XM Standalone Details

Sirius XM segment pro-forma revenues were $1.61 billion, up 2% year over year. While the total subscriber base declined 0.8% to 34.49 million, the company witnessed growth of 2.5% in ARPU, which was $14.3.

Self-pay subscriber count increased 3% year over year to 30.01 million. The company lost 215K net self-pay subscribers in the reported quarter.

Sirius XM traffic user count declined 4% year over year to 9.322 million. Canada subscribers dropped 3% to 2.6 million.

Additionally, average self-pay monthly churn rate was 1.6% in the first quarter, down 20 basis points (bps) year over year.

Subscriber revenues rose 1.6% year over year to $1.48 billion. Moreover, Equipment revenues increased 39% year over year to $57 million.

However, advertising revenues were $42 million, down 4.5% year over year. Other revenues declined 16.3% year over year to $36 million.

Pandora Details

Pandora’s pro-forma revenues increased 19.8% year over year to $442 million owing to 29.5% growth in advertising revenues, which totaled $312 million. Subscriber revenues climbed 1.6% year over year to $130 million.

The rise in ad revenues was backed by an increase in first-quarter monetization to $85.69 per thousand hours, up 36.9% year over year.

However, ARPU decreased 2.6% year over year to $6.67.

Monthly active users were 55.87 million at the end of the reported quarter, down from 60.92 million in the year-ago quarter. Ad-supported listener hours declined 8.3% year over year to 2.87 billion.

Pandora exited the first quarter with 6.456 million self-pay subscribers, up 3% year over year.

Operating Details

In the first quarter, total operating expenses increased 4.9% year over year to $1.55 billion.

Revenue share and royalty costs were up 8.8% year over year to $640 million. Programming & content costs were $122 million, up 10.9%. Transmission costs increased 20.5% year over year to $47 million.

Cost of equipment remained flat year over year at $4 million. Customer service & billing costs declined 0.9% year over year to $115 million.

Subscriber acquisition costs decreased 13.1% year over year to $86 million. Engineering, design and development expenses contracted 10% from the year-ago quarter to $54 million.

Sales and marketing expenses decreased 2.9% to $202 million. Meanwhile, general and administrative costs increased 16.5% to $106 million.

Adjusted EBITDA increased 6.7% year over year to $682 million.

Balance Sheet

As of Mar 31, 2021, cash and cash equivalents were $59 million compared with $71 million as of Dec 31, 2020.

Long-term debt, as of Mar 31, 2021, was $8.8 billion compared with $8.4 billion as of Dec 31, 2020.

At the end of the first quarter, Sirius XM’s net debt to trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA ratio was 3.4 times.

2021 Guidance

Revenues are expected at $8.35 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is estimated to be $2.575 billion.

The company anticipates adding almost 800K Sirius XM self-pay net subscribers in 2021.

Free cash flow is expected at $1.6 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Estimates revision followed an upward path over the past two months.

VGM Scores

Currently, Sirius XM has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the top 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Sirius XM has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.


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