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CME (CME) Up 7.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for CME Group (CME - Free Report) . Shares have added about 7.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is CME due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

CME Group Q1 Earnings Beat, Revenues Miss Estimates

CME Group reported first-quarter 2021 adjusted earnings per share of $1.79, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.75. The bottom line decreased 23.2% year over year due to lower clearing and transaction fees and market data and information services. Average daily volume decreased in all the six products lines.

First-quarter average daily volume marked the third-highest quarterly figure.

Performance in Detail

CME Group’s revenues of $1.3 billion decreased 17.7% year over year. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to lower clearing and transaction fees (down 21.3% year over year) and market data and information services (down 9.7% year over year). The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1%.

Total expenses decreased 6% year over year to $528.2 million during the reported quarter, attributable to lower professional fees and outside services and licensing and other fee agreements.

Operating income decreased 24.5% from the prior-year quarter to $725.1 million.

Average daily volume decreased 19.2% year over year to 21.8 million contracts in the quarter. Average rate per contract decreased 2.7%.

Financial Update

As of Mar 31, 2021, CME Group had $1.041.6 billion of cash and marketable securities, down 39.9% from 2020 end. As of Mar 31, 2021, long-term debt of $3.4 billion remained flat with 2020 end.

As of Mar 31, 2021, the company had total equity worth $26.6 billion, up 0.8% from 2020 end.

Capital Deployment

The company paid out dividends of $1.2 billion in the first quarter, including the annual variable dividend for 2020 of $895 million. CME Group has returned more than $15.6 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends since the implementation of the variable dividend policy in early 2012.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, CME has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a C. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, CME has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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