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Why Is Mosaic (MOS) Up 9.4% Since Last Earnings Report?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Mosaic (MOS - Free Report) . Shares have added about 9.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Mosaic due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Mosaic's Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Lag

Mosaic logged profits of $157 million or 41 cents per share in first-quarter 2021 against a loss of $203 million or 54 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were 57 cents that beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 50 cents.

Net sales rose roughly 28% year over year to $2,297.1 million in the quarter. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,314.1 million. Sales were driven by gains in all segments and higher year-over-year prices for phosphates.

Segment Highlights

Net sales in the Phosphates segment rose roughly 61.6% year over year to $1 billion in the quarter, driven by higher volumes and prices. Sales volumes in the segment increased 10.5% year over year. The segment’s gross margin per ton improved to $84 from a loss of $43 in the year-ago quarter, owing to lower conversion costs as well as higher volumes and realized prices.

Potash division’s net sales climbed around 8% year over year to $477 million driven by higher volumes. Sales volumes in the segment rose 5.2% year over year. Gross margin per ton in the quarter was $71, up around 25% year over year.

Net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment were $763 million, up around 4.4% year over year driven by higher year-over-year prices. Sales volume remained constant year over year at 2.1 million tons. Gross margin per ton in the quarter was $50, up around 56.2% year over year.

Financials

At the end of the quarter, Mosaic had cash and cash equivalents of $692 million, up around 20.6% year over year. Long-term debt fell roughly 2.5% year over year to $3,970.8 million.

Net cash provided by operating activities increased roughly 68% year over year to $318.8 million in the reported quarter.

Outlook

Moving ahead, the company noted that it expects strong fundamental trends witnessed in the last three quarters to continue through 2021. Strong crop demand, affordable inputs and favorable weather indicate strong grower economics.

Chinese phosphate exports are expected to remain low in 2021 due to high domestic demand and recent industry restructuring limit supplies available for export.

The company forecasts roughly $80-$90 per ton improvement in realized prices in the Phosphates segment sequentially in the second quarter. For the Potash segment, $20-$30 per ton improvement in realized prices is expected in the second quarter.

 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review flatlined during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted 6.22% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Mosaic has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a C. However, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Mosaic has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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