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We start a new trading week to close out the first half of 2021, and if this week is anything like last week, we’re in for a strong showing going into the second half of the year. We are a couple weeks out from a plurality of Q2 earnings reports, and not until later this week do we get new employment data, so for now we’re probably looking at slighter trading volume (summer months) and continued optimism regarding the infrastructure bill making it into law.
For the past few months, we’ve seen market indexes self-regulate with a number of different strategies: swinging from cyclical value to growth innovation and back again, bidding up early week and shedding everything extraneous by the end of it, and other methods to keep equities prices from spiraling too far out of control. But with the Fed announcing we are already past peak inflation in the economy, is this the markets’ chance to make a big run?
Monthly jobs numbers — both in Wednesday’s private sector employment payrolls from Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) and Friday’s non-farm payrolls from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — may either put another log on the fire or douse the light temporarily, depending. Currently, June ADP is expected to come in at 543K from 978K the previous month, while June BLS is expected to ramp up to 683K from 559K in May.
These unaligned figures from the two main monthly labor surveys are not too surprising; it’s over time that we tend to see trends between them come closer together. Thus, whether there were really almost a million new jobs reported last month (according to ADP) or closer to half a million (BLS), the important thing to remember is we continue to move in the right direction. Currently, almost 8 million Americans are still unemployed since the start of the pandemic.
In any case, market participants are on board with these levels of near-post-pandemic growth; the S&P 500, for instance, rose 2.7% last week — its best week since February. The index’s +1.8% for the month of June looks ready to notch its fifth-straight growth month. The S&P is up 15.7% year to date, while the Dow is +14% at this stage and the Nasdaq is +13%. Twenty minutes before the opening bell, the S&P 500 is +5 points, the Dow +25 and the Nasdaq +55.
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Market to Begin Week with Bullish Sentiment
We start a new trading week to close out the first half of 2021, and if this week is anything like last week, we’re in for a strong showing going into the second half of the year. We are a couple weeks out from a plurality of Q2 earnings reports, and not until later this week do we get new employment data, so for now we’re probably looking at slighter trading volume (summer months) and continued optimism regarding the infrastructure bill making it into law.
For the past few months, we’ve seen market indexes self-regulate with a number of different strategies: swinging from cyclical value to growth innovation and back again, bidding up early week and shedding everything extraneous by the end of it, and other methods to keep equities prices from spiraling too far out of control. But with the Fed announcing we are already past peak inflation in the economy, is this the markets’ chance to make a big run?
Monthly jobs numbers — both in Wednesday’s private sector employment payrolls from Automatic Data Processing (ADP - Free Report) and Friday’s non-farm payrolls from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — may either put another log on the fire or douse the light temporarily, depending. Currently, June ADP is expected to come in at 543K from 978K the previous month, while June BLS is expected to ramp up to 683K from 559K in May.
These unaligned figures from the two main monthly labor surveys are not too surprising; it’s over time that we tend to see trends between them come closer together. Thus, whether there were really almost a million new jobs reported last month (according to ADP) or closer to half a million (BLS), the important thing to remember is we continue to move in the right direction. Currently, almost 8 million Americans are still unemployed since the start of the pandemic.
In any case, market participants are on board with these levels of near-post-pandemic growth; the S&P 500, for instance, rose 2.7% last week — its best week since February. The index’s +1.8% for the month of June looks ready to notch its fifth-straight growth month. The S&P is up 15.7% year to date, while the Dow is +14% at this stage and the Nasdaq is +13%. Twenty minutes before the opening bell, the S&P 500 is +5 points, the Dow +25 and the Nasdaq +55.