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Will Payment Services Boost U.S. Bancorp (USB) Q2 Earnings?
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U.S. Bancorp (USB - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2021 results on Jul 15, before the opening bell. While its revenues might have declined year over year, earnings are likely to have improved.
Before we look at the factors that might have impacted second-quarter earnings, let’s take a look at the company’s performance over the last few quarters.
In the last reported quarter, its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on provision benefits and a strong capital position. Rise in expenses and lower revenues were the undermining factors.
U.S. Bancorp has a decent surprise history. Its earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, while missing the other, the average surprise being 19.9%.
Low Net Interest Income (NII): The overall lending scenario was soft during the April-June months, sequentially, with weakness noticed in commercial and industrial loans as well as revolving home equity and residential activities. Conversely, the real estate and consumer loan portfolios offered some support. Due to excess liquidity in the firms, loan demand is likely to have been muted.
Interest rates at near-zero level are likely to have hurt U.S. Bancorp’s net interest margin (NIM), thereby impacting NII. Flattening of the yield curve is likely to have weighed on NIM too.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $501.5 billion for the quarterly average interest earning assets indicates a 1.5% improvement from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure while the same for NII suggests a 2.7% decline to $3.11 billion.
Per management, for the second quarter of 2021, fully taxable equivalent NII is expected to increase in the low-single digits from the first-quarter actuals. NIM is expected to have been flat in the second quarter.
Loan balances are expected to have been modest in the second quarter. Prepayment activities are expected to have been higher in April but are likely to have declined in May and June. This might have impacted NII unfavorably.
Weak Consumer Revenues: Deposits improved in the quarter, aided by an incremental stimulus program, which is likely to have resulted in higher revenues from service charges on deposits.
Mortgage production is likely to have remained relatively strong but not as robust as what it was last year. A moderation in refinancing activity is expected to have offset the support from mortgage revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking revenues is pegged at $373 million, suggesting a 42.4% decline from the year-ago reported number.
Payment Service Revenues to Grow: Card fees are likely to have improved on higher consumer spending owing to decreased unemployment level, consumer optimism on new stimulus package as well as extensive vaccination drives. Demand for online payment of products and services is expected to have been decent.
The consensus estimate for credit and debit card fees of $352 million calls for a 24% rise from the prior-year reported number.
Management expects payments fee revenues to continue to improve sequentially as economic activity steadily accelerates. Starting from the second quarter, growth rates are expected to have been meaningfully impacted by favorable comparisons with the 2020 COVID-19 environment.
Overall Non-Interest Revenues to Fall: The momentum that was observed in the second half of last year has been normalizing so far as trading volumes in certain fixed-income and equity products begin to drop along with easing of market volatility. Thus, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for U.S. Bancorp's commercial product revenues indicates a 21% decline from the year-earlier reported figure.
Higher Expenses: While the absence of considerable legal expenses is encouraging, increased investments in technology to boost digital offerings might have moderately escalated costs.
Per management, non-interest expenses are likely to have been relatively stable from the first quarter.
Here is what our quantitative model predicts:
U.S. Bancorp has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: U.S. Bancorp has an Earnings ESP of +0.49%.
Zacks Rank: U.S. Bancorp currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.14 for second-quarter earnings calls for a significant jump from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. The consensus estimate for revenues of $5.63 billion suggests a 3.2% fall from the year-ago period’s reported figure.
Other Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some other big bank stocks worth considering as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Bank of America Corporation (BAC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.65% and a Zacks Rank of 3, at present. The company is scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Jul 14.
BankUnited, Inc. (BKU - Free Report) is scheduled to release earnings numbers on Jul 22. The company has a Zacks Rank of 3 at present and an Earnings ESP of +1.04%.
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Will Payment Services Boost U.S. Bancorp (USB) Q2 Earnings?
U.S. Bancorp (USB - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2021 results on Jul 15, before the opening bell. While its revenues might have declined year over year, earnings are likely to have improved.
Before we look at the factors that might have impacted second-quarter earnings, let’s take a look at the company’s performance over the last few quarters.
In the last reported quarter, its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on provision benefits and a strong capital position. Rise in expenses and lower revenues were the undermining factors.
U.S. Bancorp has a decent surprise history. Its earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters, while missing the other, the average surprise being 19.9%.
U.S. Bancorp Price and EPS Surprise
U.S. Bancorp price-eps-surprise | U.S. Bancorp Quote
Key Factors to Note
Low Net Interest Income (NII): The overall lending scenario was soft during the April-June months, sequentially, with weakness noticed in commercial and industrial loans as well as revolving home equity and residential activities. Conversely, the real estate and consumer loan portfolios offered some support. Due to excess liquidity in the firms, loan demand is likely to have been muted.
Interest rates at near-zero level are likely to have hurt U.S. Bancorp’s net interest margin (NIM), thereby impacting NII. Flattening of the yield curve is likely to have weighed on NIM too.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $501.5 billion for the quarterly average interest earning assets indicates a 1.5% improvement from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure while the same for NII suggests a 2.7% decline to $3.11 billion.
Per management, for the second quarter of 2021, fully taxable equivalent NII is expected to increase in the low-single digits from the first-quarter actuals. NIM is expected to have been flat in the second quarter.
Loan balances are expected to have been modest in the second quarter. Prepayment activities are expected to have been higher in April but are likely to have declined in May and June. This might have impacted NII unfavorably.
Weak Consumer Revenues: Deposits improved in the quarter, aided by an incremental stimulus program, which is likely to have resulted in higher revenues from service charges on deposits.
Mortgage production is likely to have remained relatively strong but not as robust as what it was last year. A moderation in refinancing activity is expected to have offset the support from mortgage revenues. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for mortgage banking revenues is pegged at $373 million, suggesting a 42.4% decline from the year-ago reported number.
Payment Service Revenues to Grow: Card fees are likely to have improved on higher consumer spending owing to decreased unemployment level, consumer optimism on new stimulus package as well as extensive vaccination drives. Demand for online payment of products and services is expected to have been decent.
The consensus estimate for credit and debit card fees of $352 million calls for a 24% rise from the prior-year reported number.
Management expects payments fee revenues to continue to improve sequentially as economic activity steadily accelerates. Starting from the second quarter, growth rates are expected to have been meaningfully impacted by favorable comparisons with the 2020 COVID-19 environment.
Overall Non-Interest Revenues to Fall: The momentum that was observed in the second half of last year has been normalizing so far as trading volumes in certain fixed-income and equity products begin to drop along with easing of market volatility. Thus, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for U.S. Bancorp's commercial product revenues indicates a 21% decline from the year-earlier reported figure.
Higher Expenses: While the absence of considerable legal expenses is encouraging, increased investments in technology to boost digital offerings might have moderately escalated costs.
Per management, non-interest expenses are likely to have been relatively stable from the first quarter.
Here is what our quantitative model predicts:
U.S. Bancorp has the right combination of the two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: U.S. Bancorp has an Earnings ESP of +0.49%.
Zacks Rank: U.S. Bancorp currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.14 for second-quarter earnings calls for a significant jump from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. The consensus estimate for revenues of $5.63 billion suggests a 3.2% fall from the year-ago period’s reported figure.
Other Stocks That Warrant a Look
Here are some other big bank stocks worth considering as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Bank of America Corporation (BAC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.65% and a Zacks Rank of 3, at present. The company is scheduled to report quarterly numbers on Jul 14.
The Bank Of New York Mellon (BK - Free Report) is slated to report quarterly results on Jul 15. The company has an Earnings ESP of +2.27% and a Zacks Rank of 3, currently. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
BankUnited, Inc. (BKU - Free Report) is scheduled to release earnings numbers on Jul 22. The company has a Zacks Rank of 3 at present and an Earnings ESP of +1.04%.