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United Airlines (UAL) to Post Q2 Earnings: What to Expect?
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United Airlines (UAL - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2021 earnings numbers on Jul 20, after market close.
Amid coronavirus-induced depressed air-travel demand, the company incurred losses in each of the trailing four quarters, reporting negative earnings surprises. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter loss has narrowed by 7.1% in the past 60 days.
Against this backdrop, let’s take a look at the factors that are expected to have influenced the company’s performance in the June quarter.
Improvement in air-travel demand, despite being below the pre-pandemic level, is expected to get reflected in passenger revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for passenger revenues hints at an 87.3% surge from the sequential quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for second-quarter traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) suggests a 61.4% jump from the reported figure in first-quarter 2021. The estimated figures for the second quarter of 2021 represent a marked improvement from the reported figures in the second quarter of 2020, when travel demand was significantly suppressed amid large-scale travel restrictions and rising coronavirus cases.
United Airlines’ cost-reduction initiatives to mitigate the lingering effects of coronavirus are expected to have aided the company’s bottom line. The company estimates operating expenses, excluding special charges, to drop approximately 33% in the second quarter from the same period in 2019.
However, the bottom line might have been partly hurt by the uptick in fuel prices. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fuel price per gallon is pegged at $1.9 for the second quarter, indicating a rise of 9.1% from the sequential quarter’s reported figure.
With travel demand still below the 2019 level, the airline is operating a reduced schedule. It expects second-quarter 2021 capacity to decrease at least 46% from the second-quarter 2019 level. This reduced capacity is expected to have pushed up non-fuel unit costs and in turn might have affected the bottom line.
Given the reduced travel demand when compared with the 2019 level, United Airlines expects total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) to decline approximately 12% in the second quarter of 2021 from the reading recorded for the same period in 2019. Additionally, it predicts adjusted EBITDA margin to be a negative 11% in the to-be-reported quarter.
What Does the Zacks Model Say?
The proven Zacks model predicts an earnings beat for United Airlines this time around. This is because the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Earnings ESP: United Airlines has an Earnings ESP of +15.73% as the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at a loss of $3.75 and the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pinned at a loss of $4.45. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: United Airlines currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Highlights of Q1 Earnings
In the last-reported quarter, the company incurred a loss (excluding $3.21 from non-recurring items) of $7.5 per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $6.97. Operating revenues of $3,221 million also fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,253.1 million. The top line plunged 59.6% year over year due to 67.2% drop in passenger revenues (which account for the bulk of the top line).
Other Stocks to Consider
Investors interested in the broader Transportation sector may also consider Southwest Airlines (LUV - Free Report) , Herc Holdings (HRI - Free Report) and Alaska Air Group (ALK - Free Report) , as these stocks possess the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle as well.
Southwest Airlines has an Earnings ESP of +59.91% and is Zacks #3 Ranked, presently. The company will release second-quarter 2021 results on Jul 22.
Herc Holdings has an Earnings ESP of +1.85% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company will release second-quarter 2021 results on Jul 22.
Alaska Air has an Earnings ESP of +39.75% and is currently a #3 Ranked player. The company will release second-quarter 2021 results on Jul 22.
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United Airlines (UAL) to Post Q2 Earnings: What to Expect?
United Airlines (UAL - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2021 earnings numbers on Jul 20, after market close.
Amid coronavirus-induced depressed air-travel demand, the company incurred losses in each of the trailing four quarters, reporting negative earnings surprises. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter loss has narrowed by 7.1% in the past 60 days.
Against this backdrop, let’s take a look at the factors that are expected to have influenced the company’s performance in the June quarter.
United Airlines Holdings Inc Price
United Airlines Holdings Inc price | United Airlines Holdings Inc Quote
Improvement in air-travel demand, despite being below the pre-pandemic level, is expected to get reflected in passenger revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for passenger revenues hints at an 87.3% surge from the sequential quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for second-quarter traffic (measured in revenue passenger miles) suggests a 61.4% jump from the reported figure in first-quarter 2021. The estimated figures for the second quarter of 2021 represent a marked improvement from the reported figures in the second quarter of 2020, when travel demand was significantly suppressed amid large-scale travel restrictions and rising coronavirus cases.
United Airlines’ cost-reduction initiatives to mitigate the lingering effects of coronavirus are expected to have aided the company’s bottom line. The company estimates operating expenses, excluding special charges, to drop approximately 33% in the second quarter from the same period in 2019.
However, the bottom line might have been partly hurt by the uptick in fuel prices. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fuel price per gallon is pegged at $1.9 for the second quarter, indicating a rise of 9.1% from the sequential quarter’s reported figure.
With travel demand still below the 2019 level, the airline is operating a reduced schedule. It expects second-quarter 2021 capacity to decrease at least 46% from the second-quarter 2019 level. This reduced capacity is expected to have pushed up non-fuel unit costs and in turn might have affected the bottom line.
Given the reduced travel demand when compared with the 2019 level, United Airlines expects total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) to decline approximately 12% in the second quarter of 2021 from the reading recorded for the same period in 2019. Additionally, it predicts adjusted EBITDA margin to be a negative 11% in the to-be-reported quarter.
What Does the Zacks Model Say?
The proven Zacks model predicts an earnings beat for United Airlines this time around. This is because the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Earnings ESP: United Airlines has an Earnings ESP of +15.73% as the Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at a loss of $3.75 and the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pinned at a loss of $4.45. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: United Airlines currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Highlights of Q1 Earnings
In the last-reported quarter, the company incurred a loss (excluding $3.21 from non-recurring items) of $7.5 per share, wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $6.97. Operating revenues of $3,221 million also fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,253.1 million. The top line plunged 59.6% year over year due to 67.2% drop in passenger revenues (which account for the bulk of the top line).
Other Stocks to Consider
Investors interested in the broader Transportation sector may also consider Southwest Airlines (LUV - Free Report) , Herc Holdings (HRI - Free Report) and Alaska Air Group (ALK - Free Report) , as these stocks possess the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle as well.
Southwest Airlines has an Earnings ESP of +59.91% and is Zacks #3 Ranked, presently. The company will release second-quarter 2021 results on Jul 22.
Herc Holdings has an Earnings ESP of +1.85% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company will release second-quarter 2021 results on Jul 22.
Alaska Air has an Earnings ESP of +39.75% and is currently a #3 Ranked player. The company will release second-quarter 2021 results on Jul 22.