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D.R. Horton (DHI) to Beat Earnings Estimates Once Again in Q3?

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D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI - Free Report) is scheduled to report third-quarter fiscal 2021 (ended Jun 30, 2021) results on Jul 22, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings and revenues topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 15% and 4.9%, respectively. Earnings and revenues of this homebuilding company grew 95% and 43%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figures.

Markedly, D.R. Horton reported better-than-expected earnings in the last nine quarters.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings has trended 0.7% downward over the past 30 days to $2.83 per share. Nonetheless, this indicates a 64.5% increase from the year-ago earnings of $1.72 per share. The consensus mark for revenues is $7.2 billion, suggesting a 33.5% year-over-year improvement.

D.R. Horton, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

D.R. Horton, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

D.R. Horton, Inc. price-eps-surprise | D.R. Horton, Inc. Quote

Factors to Note

D.R. Horton’s fiscal third-quarter Homebuilding revenues (which account for 96.7% of total revenues) are expected to have increased from the year-ago level, buoyed by solid U.S. housing market fundamentals. D.R. Horton — one of the country’s largest homebuilders — has been benefiting from resilient housing market conditions backed by historically low mortgage rates, lack of available supply and a highly motivated buyer. Also, buyers have been seeking homes in lower-density areas, thereby giving a boost to new home construction in such regions.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Homebuilding revenues of $6.96 billion suggests a 33.3% increase from a year ago.

The same for Financial Services revenues of $225 million suggests a 43.3% increase from a year ago.

In addition to solid industry fundamentals, the company’s industry-leading market share, broad geographic footprint and affordable product offerings across multiple brands are expected to have aided revenues. However, the U.S. housing market has been grappling with uncertainties arising from skyrocketing home prices, resulting in tepid home sales data. This may reflect on its new orders in the quarter. Also, higher land, labor and material costs are expected to reflect on fiscal third-quarter margins to some extent.

Other Projections

The company expects to generate consolidated revenues of $7-$7.2 billion, depicting an increase from $5,390 million a year ago. Homes closed are likely to be between 21,500 and 22,000 homes, depicting an increase from 17,642 units a year ago. It expects home sales gross margin for the fiscal second quarter to be 24.6-25% (it was 21.6% a year ago) and homebuilding SG&A to be 7.5% of homebuilding revenues (versus 7.9% in the year-ago period).

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for homes closed is pegged at 22,021 units, implying an improvement of 24.8% from the year-ago period.

The consensus estimate for net sales orders is currently pegged at 22,414 units. This suggests a 4.2% increase from a year ago. The consensus estimate for the value of the backlog is $11.9 billion, implying a 69.7% improvement from third-quarter fiscal 2020.

What the Zacks Model Says

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for D.R. Horton this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.

Earnings ESP: The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.80%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: D.R. Horton currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks With Favorable Combination

Here are some other companies in the Zacks Construction sector, which according to our model also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their respective quarters to be reported.

Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (TPH - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.65% and a Zacks Rank #2.

ChampionX Corporation (CHX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +10.00% and holds a Zacks Rank #2.

United Rentals, Inc. (URI - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +6.18% and a Zacks Rank #2.

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