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Factors Setting the Tone for Procter & Gamble's (PG) Q4 Earnings

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The Procter & Gamble Company (PG - Free Report) is set to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2021 results on Jul 30, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings stands at $1.1 per share, indicating a 5.2% decrease from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. However, the consensus mark has moved north in the past 30 days. For fiscal fourth-quarter revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $18.3 billion, suggesting 3.3% growth from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

For fiscal 2021, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings stands at $5.63 per share, indicating almost 10% growth from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $75.5 billion, suggesting a rise of 6.4% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 6.8%. Its bottom line beat estimates by 11.1%, on average, over the trailing four quarters.

Key Factors to Note

Procter & Gamble has been gaining from strength across all segments coupled with robust pricing and mix. Continued consumer demand for its hand soaps, detergents and surface cleaning products bodes well. The continued demand momentum is reflected by the underlying strength in brands and appropriate strategies, which have been aiding organic sales growth. Moreover, growth of premium home, health and hygiene products and strength in the North American and Greater China regions act as key growth drivers. Such endeavors are likely to have aided revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. It anticipated all-in and organic sales growth of 5-6% each in fiscal 2021, in its last-quarter earnings call.

The company also remains focused on productivity and cost-saving plans to boost margins. Continued investments in business alongside efforts to offset macro cost headwinds and balance top and bottom-line growth underscore its productivity efforts. It has been witnessing cost savings and efficiency improvements across all facets of the business, driven by its second five-year productivity program. Gains from productivity savings and pricing have been aiding its margins and bottom line and the trend is likely to have continued in the fiscal fourth quarter. In its last earnings call, management had anticipated core earnings per share for fiscal 2021 to grow 8-10%.

However, elevated costs related to marketing reinvestments, and higher freight and commodity costs remain concerns. The company’s core earnings per share guidance includes an impact of more than $200 million and $125 million from higher freight costs and commodity costs, respectively, in fiscal 2021. Currency headwinds to the tune of $150 million are likely to have hurt the bottom line in the said period.

Procter & Gamble Company The Price and EPS Surprise

Zacks Model

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Procter & Gamble this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Procter & Gamble has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.46%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks With Favorable Combinations

Here are some companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat.

Darlings Ingredients Inc. (DAR - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +10.09% and a Zacks Rank #1, at present.

Medifast (MED - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +7.27% and, presently, a Zacks Rank #2.

Tyson Foods (TSN - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +9.03% and a Zacks Rank #2.