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What's in the Cards for Amarin (AMRN) This Earnings Season?

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Amarin Corporation PLC (AMRN - Free Report) is scheduled to report second-quarter 2021 results on Aug 5, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 200.00%.

Notably, Amarin’s earnings history is mixed. This pharmaceuticals company outpaced estimates in three out of the last four quarters and missed in one, with the average beat being 111.11%.

Shares of Amarin have underperformed the industry in the past year. The stock has lost 13.7% compared with the industry’s decrease of 1.3%.

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.

Factors to Note

Sales of Amarin’s Vascepa were hit by disruptions caused by COVID-19 in the first quarter of 2021. However, sales of the drug are likely to have benefited from potential recovery from the effects of COVID-19 during the second quarter. Rising generic competition is likely to have hurt sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for product sales, primarily comprising Vascepa, stands at $155 million.

The drug was approved in Europe and the United Kingdom in March and April, respectively, as a treatment to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events.. Amarin plans to launch the drug in Europe during the third quarter and has been conducting awareness programs in the region. The company may provide an update related to its commercialization plans in Europe on the second-quarter earnings call. The company may also provide an updated revenue guidance to include additional revenues from Europe and the United Kingdom on the call.

The company earns fees from its licensed partners related to commercialization of Vascepa outside the United States, which is expected to have increased in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for licensing revenues stands at $1 million.

We note that the company has been expanding its sales team to support the launch of Vascepa in the expanded label as well in new territories. We expect the launch to have driven operating expenses higher in the soon-to-be reported quarter.

We expect the company to provide an update on the anticipated impact of COVID-19 on its business in the rest of 2021 on its earnings call. Investors may ask questions on the impact of generics on Vascepa sales as well as impact of competition from other approved drugs, especially Sanofi (SNY - Free Report) and Amgen’s (AMGN - Free Report) PCSK9 inhibitors, Praluent and Repatha, respectively, on the call.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Amarin this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESPand a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Amarin has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at a loss of 3 cents per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Amarin currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Amarin Corporation PLC Price and EPS Surprise

Amarin Corporation PLC Price and EPS Surprise

Amarin Corporation PLC price-eps-surprise | Amarin Corporation PLC Quote

A Stock That Warrants a Look

Here is a biotech stock that you may want to consider, as our model shows that it has the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat in its upcoming release.

Dynavax Technologies Corporation (DVAX - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +318.18% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.