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Housing Starts Disappoint, Lowe's (LOW) Beats

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Wednesday, August 18, 2021

Housing Starts
for July came in underperforming analysts’ estimates this morning, to 1.534 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units, down from the 1.59 million expected and the weakest monthly print since April (in March, we saw 1.725 million units, which was the highest since 2006). This amounts to a -7% drop in starts, more than double the expected -3.2%, from the upwardly revised June final read of 1.650 million.

Building Permits, a proxy for future starts, outperformed expectations in July: 1.635 million versus the 1.59 million expected. This was to be flat month-over-month, but we’re seeing a bump in permits activity. Analysts will decide whether this bump in permits will amount to a higher starts figure next month, or whether the high input costs will continue to be a lead weight dragging on the homebuilding market.

Chinese stocks are bouncing back, following a real cooling off period hastened by harsh regulatory reforms from the Chinese government over publicly traded tech stocks in the country. We’ve seen push-back on government reforms in the streets of Hong Kong, and a public speech critical of the government by Alibaba (BABA - Free Report) founder Jack Ma last October, but the protests have ended and so have Ma’s speeches. Tencent (TCEHY - Free Report) is up 3% in today’s pre-market.

Big-box retailer Target (TGT - Free Report) has posted a 4.6% positive earnings surprise this morning, with $3.64 per share topping the $3.48 expected (and $3.38 per share posted in the year-ago quarter). Target’s sales were roughly in-line (a 0.37% beat) to $25.16 billion in the quarter. The company also announced a $15 billion stock buyback program, but this has not kept the stock from selling off -2% on the news. Year to date, Target was already up 44%. For more on TGT’s earnings, click here.

Following Home Depot’s (HD - Free Report) modest beat (and subsequent stock sell-off) yesterday, home improvement competitor Lowe’s (LOW - Free Report) reported $4.25 per share, beating the Zacks consensus $3.99 on $27.57 billion in revenues, which beat estimates by 2.15%. This makes nine straight earnings beats for the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company with a Value-Growth-Momentum score of A. The stock has trailed the S&P 500 year to date, but is up 4% on the news. For more on LOW’s earnings, click here.

This afternoon, we will get our first look at the minutes of the most recent meeting from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) — specifically, whether talk of tapering asset purchases may be more of a near-term reality than earlier surmised. Among all economic metrics and major retail companies reporting earnings this week, this may actually be the market mover. Currently, markets are down again in the pre-market for the third straight day. Are fortunes about to change?

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